| Other folks have already written up the big numbers from the MSU-B poll. I've had my doubts about the MSU-B poll ever since it produced a very, very weird number in the Brown-Schweitzer race in 2004. That set of doubts resulted in a nasty email from Craig Wilson after I questioned the poll's numbers last year showing Tester up 11 points over Burns in the final weeks of the race, when we know the contest was becoming closer.
All that said, none of these numbers strike me as on their face unlikely, but that may be because I like the low approval ratings for the war in Iraq or the high approval of Tester.
Anyways, my point is simply this: the MSU-B poll has correctly predicted outcomes in the past, but the margins have been completely out-of-line.
This will probably result in more push-back. That's fine. I just think that an honest discussion of where the numbers from '04 and '06 came from -- and "margin of error" doesn't cut it.
Still, if we take the numbers at face value, what does this tell us about the electoral safety of Dennis Rehberg, Max Baucus, and Brian Schweitzer? Well, long story short, Bill Kennedy, Mike Lange, and Roy Brown all have their work cut out for them -- big time. But bigger approval ratings have been cut down by effective criticism in the past.
So, take heart, partisans of both sides. While it isn't likely that any of these three will be unseated, there's a possibility with a campaign run well on issues that connect with Montanans. Others have pointed out that Mr. Rehberg just may be susceptible to some criticism for his staunch support of the President's war in Iraq. I think that's probably some good advice. |
