| Okay, 96 percent of the New Hampshire precincts are reporting and it looks like Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Barack Obama, 39 to 37 percent, or by about 8,000 voters. Edwards finished a distant third, as expected, with 17 percent. I'm glad I stayed up the extra hour or two. Obama gained a whole percentage point during that time!
Wow. Given what the polls were showing just yesterday...an Obama blowout...rumors of Clinton ready to drop out of the race...man, that was some turnaround. So. Record turnout, mostly headed to the Democrats...and they turn out to vote for Clinton? Yes, I'm puzzled. The media's primed to ascribe her success to her "real moment," but...a ten-point shift on a news story that happened a day before the election? It's easier to assume that the polls were dead wrong. Or something.
Various & sundry thoughts.
The Iowa caucus distributed its second-tier delegates to the top tier candidates. The New Hampshire primary did not. Would a similar system have benefited Obama, or Clinton in New Hampshire? Or Edwards, as it apparently did in Iowa?
Turnout was huge. Again, as in Iowa, the majority of new voters came out to cast their votes in the Democratic primary. The numbers were ridiculous in Iowa: the top Republican there would have finished fourth in the Democratic caucus. In New Hampshire the Republican winner, John McCain, would have finished third. It's early, but the Republican party has a steep hill to climb. People are flocking to the Democratic party. We talk about the down-ticket effect here in Montana: consider what a huge influx of Democratic voters in swing states like Iowa and New Hampshire mean to all the statewide races there. Remember, one of the Senate battles to watch in '08 is over Republican John Sununu's New Hampshire seat. I bet he's sweating bullets tonight looking at the number of young voters showing up to vote in the primary.
Did Clinton's moment have an effect on women voters? Did Gloria Steinem's op-ed in today's New York Times strike a chord? According to CNN's exit poll, women favored Clinton, 46 to 34 percent. (Men favored Obama, 40 to 29 percent.) In CNN's Iowa entrance poll, women favored Obama, 35 to 23 percent. (Men also favored Obama, 35 to 30 percent.) That's a huge jump, folks, twenty-something points. More on the woman thing tomorrow.
We got ourselves a race here!
Oh yeah, John McCain won New Hampshire. His victory speech, one word: zzz-zz-zzz. Dude looks old. |
