In an article contemplating potential VEEP picks for Obama, Will Thomas writes for Huffington Post:[Brian Schweitzer] also doesn't bring in any delegates from his own state (though that could be offset if he helps in places like North Dakota, Wyoming and Colorado). Really? Montana isn't competitive, but Wyoming and North Dakota are?
Let's head to 538, the new election guru website for rankings.
538 pegs Obama's chance of winning North Dakota at 32% and his odds of winning Wyoming at 0%. Montana, by comparison, is 22%.
The basis for those numbers? Wyoming polls show McCain up by 20%. In ND and MT, by comparison, polls show Obama only down by 6-8%. In other words, Schweitzer would probably help make both states pretty competitive -- and he would probably do more to move numbers in Montana than in NoDak.
All that said, I'm a little less bullish on Schweitzer's chances of being tapped by Obama -- or on Schweitzer's likelihood of taking the nod.
But who knows? Stranger things have happened.
(Hat tip to David Crisp.) |
