| User Blox 4 |
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Barack Obama  |
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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.
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Tue May 27, 2008 at 07:04:20 AM MST
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| Safe: Dennis Rehberg. Montana's sole U.S. Representative has a relatively low re-elect number right now (52%), but his main opponent Jim Hunt is only picking up 20% of the vote right now. This occurs despite virtually no name recognition. And those numbers are such that it is possible that this could turn into a race. But for now, it is safe.
Safer: Brian Schweitzer. While Montana Republicans would like to think that the Governor's race will heat up, Schweitzer is polling higher than Rehberg. Roy Brown is also polling higher than Jim Hunt -- a reflection of the still general truth in Montana that Republicans have a higher baseline.
Safest: Max Baucus. No one is touching this guy. He's got better than 2:1 leads over both Kirk Bushman and Mike Lange. Against Bushman, his slightly tougher opponent, he draws 90% of D votes, 64% of Independents, and a third of Republicans. As the pollster said, he would have to screw up big time to be in danger. After thirty years in the U.S. Senate, that seems pretty unlikely.
Interesting bottom line? The two narrowest statewide victories at the top of the ticket could be President and U.S. House -- with McCain and Rehberg the likely victors.
What does this mean? Well, it might mean that Dems have more cover than usual down-ticket, despite the (extremely mildly) bad news for Democratic legislative candidates in the polling released yesterday. Or it may mean nothing. Montanans are notorious ticket-splitters. They likely will continue to split those tickets in a big way this year. |
| Matt Singer :: Safe, Safer, Safest |
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| Voting. Useful or not? |
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Results
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