FiveThirtyEight on Ron Paul's presence on Montana's ballot

by: Jay Stevens

Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 10:55:24 AM MST

I do think he'll steal a few votes from McCain -- particularly given the selection of Sarah Palin, who may not play all that well with libertarianish Republicans. But he'll likely also take some votes from Obama, especially among under-30 voters, as well as from other third-party candidates. And having attended a Ron Paul event in Chicago last summer (don't ask -- we don't get many presidential candidates around these parts), I also get the sense that he turns out certain folks who just wouldn't bother voting period if it weren't for Ron Paul.

My guess? He gets 5-6 percent of the vote, taking 2-3 percent from McCain, 1-2 percent from Obama, and 2-3 percent from other/nobody.

Smart man. A lazy thinker would automatically shunt McCain's votes into Paul's tally, but he's right, Paul does win some young, progressive voters that might otherwise vote for Obama.

Still, with the polls as tight as they are here in Montana -- with McCain and Obama in a virtual tie -- any difference matters. FiveThirtyEight postulates that Obama will get a 1 to 2 percent bump by Paul's presence on the ticket: that might be enough.

If only we knew what effect Nader and Barr will have on Montana voters...