RNC Buys Ads in Montana, GOP Nervous About State

by: Matt Singer

Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 16:34:49 PM MST

Marc Ambinder's take:

The ads begin Wednesday.

In 2004, George W. Bush won Montana by 20 points.

Ron Paul is on the ballot.  And Ron Paul supporters aren't happy with John McCain...

A Republican congressman from Texas could throw the state to Barack Obama.

Over 80,000 votes have already been cast in Montana.

My sense from demographic numbers and the counties where voter registration rolls are growing is that McCain is being massively out-organized.

Back to work.

Update -- The more I think about this, the weirder it is. It isn't even that strange that the GOP is playing defense here. It's that this is the best place for them to spend money. Most polling indicates that Montana is only competitive if Obama is winning in such a landslide that the game is already over. The Republican Party nationally is facing a real ass-whooping in the White House, the U.S. Senate, and the U.S. House.

So why move cash into Montana? And why move the $300k-400k I'm seeing get mentioned? That's a very significant media buy in this state and in a competitive national environment, it is a serious piece of change to deploy.

All of that says to me that either:

• Internal GOP polling shows Montana to be basically a firewall state for them -- that it has become a must-win. OR
• The RNC is giving up on a lot of stuff, but is trying to help their down-ballot folks in Montana by sowing significant doubts around the Democratic brand. OR
• I am missing something. OR
• This is a terrible decision.