| Looks like we got ourselves a new poll for Montana: Mason-Dixon found McCain to have a four-point edge over Obama in the state. As always, here are the recent polls:
10/28 - Mason-Dixon: McCain 44 48, Obama 40 44 (McCain +4)
10/23 - MSU-B: McCain 40, Obama 44 (Obama +4)
10/19 - Research 2000: McCain 49, Obama 45 (McCain +4)
10/7 - ARG: McCain 50, Obama 45 (McCain +5)
10/1 - Rasmussen: McCain 52, Obama 44 (McCain +8)
9/23 - Research 2000: McCain 52, Obama 39 (McCain +13)
9/22 - CNN: McCain 49, Obama 40 (McCain +9)
The only thing I know about this most recent poll that it had 600+ respondents.
Not much to say. It could confirm that MSU-B is an outlier. Still, it's about what you'd expect.
Update (by Matt) -- Mason-Dixon is probably the gold standard of Montana polling. They typically handle Lee's polling and have pretty hefty experience in the state. That said, one of the clear emerging trends with the MSU-B poll in this and previous years is that it doesn't push leaners at all. So what we may be seeing is simply an enthusiasm gap, combined with a lack of a Ron Paul option.
That's not to say that the MSU-B numbers are more accurate. John McCain probably is the preferred candidate of slightly more Montanans. But a significant number of those Montanans display a fair amount of antipathy toward McCain still.
Bottom line -- this thing is pretty close and the race is to the point where a good field effort can change the outcome. The Obama campaign is still pushing super heavy for volunteers, so I assume that they still need help.
I won't be helping them as I'm focused on the down ballot, but I'd certainly encourage folks with bandwidth right now to lend a hand. |
