Mason-Dixon's "Republican lean" makes Obama-McCain a dead heat in Montana

by: Jay Stevens

Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 07:13:01 AM MST

Mason-Dixon is a pretty strong pollster. So, however, are many others from among the literally dozen or so agencies that have conducted polling within Pennsylvania over the past 72 hours. And none of those other pollsters shows the race that tight.

Mason-Dixon has also had a Republican "lean" this cycle of perhaps 2-3 points. They are quite frequently the most favorable number for John McCain in any given state. That doesn't mean that they are "biased", and it doesn't mean that they are wrong - there are many different (and legitimate!) ways to think about this election. But it does mean that their polls need to be interpreted in that context. Let's say the average poll in Pennsylvania has Obama ahead by 9.5 points. Mason-Dixon will probably start out seeing a 9.5-point state at a 7-point state. If they then end up toward the McCain side of their margin of error -- and they don't use huge sample sizes - that's how you get to Obama +4.

Now I'm not saying Mason-Dixon's Montana poll is necessarily leaning 2-3 points towards McCain. It might be. But that possible lean and the fact that Ron Paul wasn't in the sampling makes it pretty clear what all of us know anyway: it's a dead heat in Montana between Obama and McCain.

Later today I'll post about GOTV efforts for Obama and the Democratic party. Where, when, what. If you've never knocked on doors before, this is your big chance. It's a little scary at first, but it's much, much more, oh ever so muchly more easy and fun to do than phone banking.

Five days, people!