| This is it. The final stretch from Halloween to Election Day -- two of my favorite days of the year (God, I'm a nerd).
Jay already covered this, but late yesterday, Rasmussen put out some new numbers showing McCain +4 in Montana. That comes on the heels of the Mason-Dixon numbers showing the same margin even as MSU-B recently showed the state +4 for Obama.
So what's happening?
A few possibilities: - MSU-B seems to have a Democratic bias in their polls. 538's Nate Silver detects a mild Republican bias in Mason-Dixon's polling this year. Maybe all the numbers are a bit off due to some minor polling errors and natural MoE. The race is somewhere between +4 Obama and +4 McCain.
- MSU-B included Paul while Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen excluded him. Rasmussen even notes that more McCain voters than Obama voters are expressing interest in potentially voting third party (and if polling continues to predict an Obama blowout come Election Day, more of those voters are likely to defect). That would say the race is more narrowly pro-McCain than M-D or Ras indicate right now.
- The youth vote. Unfortunately, neither Mason-Dixon nor MSU-B have made crosstabs available. I've seen the Rasmussen crosstabs and they have McCain winning the youth vote significantly. That is, um, unlikely to happen, especially in a situation where McCain is only up by four. Democracy Corps -- a respect Dem polling firm -- shows Obama winning white youth 51-38. Montana's under 30 vote is basically 90% white, 8% Indian, and 2% everyone else. So you can use the 51-38 as a baseline and then tweak it a few more points toward Obama. Long story short -- McCain probably isn't winning the youth vote in Montana.
Bottom line -- looking at all the polling right now, it looks like we've got ourselves a race here in Montana.
And elections are not decided by some mystical deciphering of the will of the electorate. They're decided by people who vote. That's why casting those ballots is so crucial and also why last minute field efforts make a big difference. Here's some numbers based on rough field math: - On doors, for every 10 people you talk to -- an additional person will vote.
- On phones, for every 20 people you talk to -- an additional person will vote.
- On text messages, for every 20 people you text -- an additional person will vote.
- On yard signs, for every 100 yard signs you put up -- there is no evidence that a single additional person will vote.
- On robo-calls, for every 100,000 made by the campaign -- there is no evidence that a single additional person will vote.
GOTV is called a ground game for a reason. It is ultimately won and lost by large numbers of volunteers -- an army so to speak.
In other words, this race will now be decided by the actions of every day Montanans who choose (or choose not) to get involved.
So, yeah, no bitching if you don't knock doors. Voting ain't enough.
Update -- Just to be clear, the numbers above apply to mobilization of voters. Persuasion, name ID, volunteer motivation, and other things are also important to campaigns.
But we're in mobilizing mode now where what matters is how many people get turned out to the polls. Spending time election weekend asking for yard signs is a waste of time. Hell, lit dropping isn't very effective right now (especially in the Presidential race since everyone in America knows the names Barack Obama and John McCain right now).
Months ago, a lot of things could make a difference. Right now, basically three things do:
- Door to door canvassing
- Phone calls
- Personal outreach to your own network of folks, especially folks you know who may not be planning to vote.
Light it up. |
