What to Watch For Tomorrow Night

by: Matt Singer

Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:05:36 AM MST

Note: This is little more than ill-informed speculation based on my admittedly hazy recollections of past election years, when counties report out numbers, and my assumptions about voting this year. Take it with a grain of salt and provide your own thoughts in comments.

• Early Returns -- Shortly after 8pm, Yellowstone County and a couple other locations (Missoula County is likely) will post their early returns, which they'll be tallying behind locked doors tomorrow. These numbers should be favorable to Obama given the vaunted ground game. My own analysis of where the early vote has occurred indicates that Montana's early vote should be favoring Democrats. If Obama isn't up by a fairly healthy margin -- 5-10 percent in Yellowstone County -- his odds of winning Montana's electoral votes is slim in my estimation.
• Down Ballot Drop Off and Performance -- The next big question for Dems is whether their voters are completing the ballot. Early returns should provide interesting data here, so on the early returns -- do the math. Two questions here -- what percent of voters participating in the Presidential race are participating in the Attorney General race and in state legislative races? Also, are these down ballot Dems running ahead or behind of Obama? It is possible that down ballot Dems are picking up McCain voters but they'll still be in trouble because Obama voters only plugged the Presidential race. It is unlikely that Obama voters are plugging too many down ballot Republicans (although some of this will happen).
• Where Goes the Legislature -- Keeping in mind that Dems should be running strong in early returns, Missoula County and Yellowstone County have some good battleground legislative races to evaluate where the legislature is headed. Keep your eyes on the following:
  • HD 100 -- Incumbent Bill Nooney faces Willis Curdy in this rural Missoula County district. Early returns may favor Willis less than other Dems, simply because he was appointed to fill a vacancy in the race (he also had run in the primary, losing very narrowly). This district went for Nooney fairly heavily in '06 and narrowly for Burns in the Tester/Burns race. If Dems win it, they're likely to have a very good night.
  • HD 50 -- A heart of Billings district that has steadily reelected Republican Tom McGilvray. If McGilvray ends up losing reelection, the state GOP will have a very long night -- and it will be a clear sign that the Obama field operation is every bit as good (or better) than its reputation.
  • SD 27 -- One of the few Republican-held Senate seats in Montana targeted by Democrats this cycle, numbers from Yellowstone County will show early on whether Dems will see any good news in the Montana Senate.
• The Missoula Margin and the Yellowstone Win -- Missoula County and Yellowstone County will provide key clues throughout the night. Yellowstone is the Ohio of Montana. If Obama wins Yellowstone County, he has a really good chance of winning the state. In Missoula County, Schweitzer ran up a 13,000 vote margin in '04 and Tester went with a 14,000 vote margin in '06. The question for Obama in Missoula County is less the percentage victory (it should be large) and more the margin. My guess is that Obama runs weaker in rural Montana than either Tester or Schweitzer, meaning Obama needs a 15,000+ vote margin out of Missoula County. Again, we'll see the impact of his massive registration and turnout machine.

One final thing for Obama fans -- latest poll shows him up by 1 in Montana. 538 now gives him nearly a 20% chance of winning the state -- the best shot they've evaluated in recent weeks.

Go. Knock. Doors.