CNN's Montana exit poll

Just missed the cutoff (4.00 / 1)

Thankfully I'm 29. I shudder to think at my odds of being a McCain supporter had I been born just a year earlier!

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by: bonkrood @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 03:54:04 AM UTC

Please try to fight against your demographic destiny in 2012 (0.00 / 0)

I succeeded this year--I'm part of the 36% minority.  Luckily I'll be moving into the next age bracket very soon, and statistically that'll make it a little easier to vote Democratic in Montana.

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by: Duncan Idaho @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:28:14 PM UTC

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Early Voting (0.00 / 0)

How do you suppose the exit polls dealt with early voting? There's a few other unexpected splits -- for instance, 50-50 among both college grads and advanced degree holders (which generally trend heavy Dem) -- that might show some skew in the data. (Also, no one made up their mind in the last week?) If they didn't blend in a sample of early voters, or didn't get it right, that might explain some of the oddities.

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by: readbetween @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 15:30:39 PM UTC

Good point... (0.00 / 0)

I wonder if early voting affects exit polls somehow. That's a question for FiveThirtyEight.com, if only Nate Silver were reading his email....

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by: Jay Stevens @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 15:41:56 PM UTC

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They phone sample early voters (0.00 / 0)

and mix in the results

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by: Matt Singer @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 17:05:13 PM UTC

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Interesting... (0.00 / 0)

Thanks for posting Jay. I have a hard time believing that McCain won the MT 30 to 44 year old vote by 60 to 36. McCain only beat Obama by 2.5% in Montana.  However, when I checked out some of the surrounded states Obama's MT number for 30 to 44 year olds seems more consistent with states like Idaho, Wyoming, Utah (big percentage wins for McCain) than with states were Obama either won (CO, NV, NM) or was at least competitive. While McCain won that age demographic in Montana, I seriously doubt it was actually nearly 2 to 1.   Either way, seems clear looking at other state's exit polls for the same age demographic that once people get married and pop out a few kids they become more conservative in their views.  Maybe because they end up going back to church out of fear their kids will end up in hell if they don't.  

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by: Matthew Koehler @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:11:10 PM UTC

outmigration (0.00 / 0)

Geographer Christiane von Reichert at UM has done some studies of migration patterns out of and into Montana.  The Republican-leaning tendency of this demographic seems consistent with patterns she's documented, that people stay here for awhile out of college, but then they typically move away to get a good-paying job in a different state.  When they're older, maybe "empty-nesters" or early retirement age, they can afford to move back and they do.

Of course, when I say this pattern seems "consistent" I'm making inferences about the portion of the 30-44 year olds that leave the state vs. those that stay--that the out-migrants are "upwardly mobile," more likely to work in tech or other higher-end jobs.  That may be true, but it doesn't address the problem of why the "stay in MT" segment is so conservative.  

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by: Duncan Idaho @ Mon Nov 10, 2008 at 16:25:08 PM UTC

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