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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

Really Ellen? Timber Industry has "lack of fiber supply"??

by: Matthew Koehler

Tue Jan 13, 2009 at 11:15:54 AM MST


( - promoted by Jay Stevens)

"Those of us in the timber community are struggling to stay afloat with the housing slump, poor market conditions, and lack of fiber supply."
- Ellen Simpson, Montana Wood Products Association
http://www.mtpr.net/commentari...

Say what, Ellen? At what point are you going to be honest with the public and elected officials regarding timber supply? We all know that you'd like to see more logging on national forests, but how can you honestly say that the timber industry is currently struggling because of a lack of fiber supply?

Matthew Koehler :: Really Ellen? Timber Industry has "lack of fiber supply"??
While I think some of your ideas in your MT Public radio commentary regarding local, value added production deserve consideration and even sound somewhat similar to things we've been advocating for years now (as long as it's not tied to the current over-consumption/over-development paradigm that has honestly propped up your industry for years) why do you continue to insist that more logging will save the timber industry, when all the economic evidence points to a dramatic over-supply of logs at Montana mills and a dramatic lack of orders (in some cases down 50%) for the lumber products? How do these realities mesh with your "lack of logging is the problem" rhetoric?

We're all in this economic crisis together, even those of us who warned about the impending "perfect storm" for decades now. Every family I know of, including my own, have been negatively affected by the economic crisis and people are concerned, scared and worried.  To me, that's all the more reason to be honest with people. If we can't honestly and accurately talk about the problems, how in the world can we come up with clean, green and sustainable solutions that benefit workers, communities and the environment?

Your continued insistence that a lack of fiber supply is a main cause of the current problems facing the timber industry is highly inaccurate and bizarre given the mountains of information out there to the contrary.

Thanks, Matthew

"It's not supply that's the concern. They have lots of logs. The concern going forward is consumer demand for the product."
- Shawn Church, editor of lumber trade magazine Random Lengths
http://www.missoulian.com/arti...

"Unfortunately, these steps are necessary to match supply with the eroding demand for our wood products."
- Rick Holley, Plum Creek president and chief executive officer.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...

"With its log yards full and a lower demand for products, Plum Creek Timber Co. is telling logging contractors to stop work in the woods."

"We are ahead of pace for putting logs into the mills' inventories right now and we simply need to slow down on log deliveries."
- Tom Ray, Plum Creek Vice President

"Right now the mill yards are pretty much full.  They've got a lot of inventory both in logs and lumber"
- Joe Keller, Plum Creek subcontractor
http://www.dailyinterlake.com/...

"The Western Wood Products Association reports Western mills are experiencing the largest downturn in lumber demand ever recorded."
http://www2.wwpa.org/ABOUTWWPA...

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Lack of fiber? (0.00 / 0)
Fiber is found in all plant foods, including fruits, vegetables, grains, nuts, seeds, and legumes. Adding these to her diet will provide Ellen with substantial relief.

I thought she was talking about (0.00 / 0)
the industry's lack of moral fiber.

[ Parent ]
From: "Ellen Simpson" (0.00 / 0)
From: Ellen Simpson
To: Matthew Koehler
Subject: Re: Ellen, really? Timber Industry has "lack of fiber supply"??
Date: Wed, 14 Jan 2009 12:02:57 -0700

The issue has been lack of fiber supply for the past number of years.  There is supply, but it is too far from the mills at too high a price to make the economics work.  I know you think you know all about this, but sadly, you know virtually nothing about mills, manufacturing, or how businesses run.  There are enough logs at the moment, but in a matter of days or weeks, the logs will be gone and more are not available at a price the mills can pay.  The high cost of stumpage for too long a period of time has put the timber folks in this position and now with poor decisions made at the federal level by Congress the problems of the nation's economy have only gotten worse. 

You simply cannot seem to get the fact that it is a fact when I say there is a lack of fiber supply.  I doubt any of my folks would talk to you but if they did, they would say the exact same thing.

Matthew, don't bother to respond or to send this to anyone else.  I have no intention of a running debate with anyone who knows nothing about the reality of the wood products community.  If you try to continue this, I will simply block your emails. 


I get it... (0.00 / 0)
She wants the USFS to fill up the log yards for her. Woods products industry-speak for "bailout."

Somebody should give Ellen a lesson in free market economics. I hear it's all the Republican rage these days.  


[ Parent ]
Maybe it's the lack of mills? (0.00 / 0)
She states:
There is supply, but it is too far from the mills at too high a price to make the economics work.

Hard to tell when she's talking in circles.


[ Parent ]
Not chiding, per se (0.00 / 0)
I can't say I'm fond of posting 'private' emails.  I know that Ellen is simply trying to pat herself on the back for a job-well-done while avoiding the facts.  I know that she is foolishly trying to avoid engagement.  It's clear that emails are a publishable record of thought and intent.  I know that I have threatened to post emails before from those who are most egregious on my own website.  But that fact is simple:  it was on my website; mine.

She obviously has no intent to actually engage us little folk.  So posting her email here appears a little ... shabby ... to me.  This is simply my opinion and has no meta-ethical imperative to back it up; quite probably this is a discussion better had another time and at another place.  I'm just conveying that arguing with her in absentia, given an email of no provenance, seems a lot unfair and a little icky to me.


[ Parent ]
I hear what you are saying Wulfgar (0.00 / 0)
...and I of course thought of that too.

But then I also thought of the fact that Ellen is a lobbyist for the timber industry who most people realize will say pretty much anything to increase logging on public lands, or get her industry a few tax breaks in Helena, or get some regulations changed by Bush to benefit more logging, etc.  

Seems like the public has every right to know what she thinks, especially since the public and public lands have been so affected by her lobbying efforts.  


[ Parent ]
For those who are more visual learners... (0.00 / 0)
This is what Ellen's response looked like:

http://image.guardian.co.uk/sy...


Ellen has always been just about 95% fact-free (0.00 / 0)
Notice how she states above, "There are enough logs at the moment, but in a matter of days or weeks, the logs will be gone and more are not available at a price the mills can pay."

Really, Ellen? In a matter of days log yards in Montana will be empty? Really?

Now I know I don't know nuttin' about any of this Ellen, but in this article
http://www.missoulian.com/arti...   from yesterday it clearly says:

"Logyards are filling fast, as demand for housing lumber plummets. At Plum Creek's plywood plant in Columbia Falls, a full six months' worth of logs have stacked up out front."

Or what about this from the same article?

"We kind of hit the wall about a month ago," said Greg Dennison, a private logging contractor from Kalispell. He sells to Plum Creek and to F.H. Stoltze Land and Lumber, "and both of those mills have pretty much shut down their purchasing."

"They shut me off on Dec. 1, and it looks like it's going to be six months, at least." Logyards at both mills are stacked high with supply, but demand for finished lumber has tanked. "They're telling us they already have enough (logs) to run until September," Dennison said.

Enough logs till September Ellen. Not running out in days Ellen.

And finally, Ellen, what about this?

Stoltze will meet its current obligations - timber sales to which the company already has committed - but Roady would not speculate as to whether his mill will take on any new obligations.

"It's all about moving product out the back door of the plant," he said, which is no easy matter with lumber orders down somewhere between 30 percent and 50 percent, depending on the product. Plum Creek has reported a similar slump in orders.

Like I said above Ellen, we're all in this economic crisis together, even those of us who warned about the impending "perfect storm" for decades now. Every family I know of, including my own, have been negatively affected by the economic crisis and people are concerned, scared and worried.  To me, that's all the more reason to be honest with people. If we can't honestly and accurately talk about the problems, how in the world can we come up with clean, green and sustainable solutions that benefit workers, communities and the environment?

Why is that such a difficult question for you to answer Ellen?


Report: Smurfit-Stone considers bankruptcy (0.00 / 0)
@ http://www.bizjournals.com/mil...

Smurfit-Stone Container Corp., a packaging products manufacturer with multiple operations in the Milwaukee area, has hired bankruptcy counsel and financial advisers to line up about $750 million in debtor-in-possession financing, unnamed sources told The Wall Street Journal.

A Chapter 11 filing for protection from creditors could come within two weeks, the newspaper reported Thursday, but it's possible the company could avoid filing.

The cardboard container company hired Sidley Austin Brown & Wood, a Chicago law firm, to serve as bankruptcy counsel, according to the report.

A Smurfit-Stone spokesman declined to comment.

Smurfit-Stone has about $3.5 billion in outstanding debt, and has been shuttering and restructuring operations, including layoffs, as part of a multi-year plan to improve performance.

Based in Creve Coeur, Mo., near St. Louis, and Chicago, Smurfit-Stone Container Corp. (Nasdaq: SSCC) manufactures corrugated container and containerboard. Nearly all of the firm's executives are based in St. Louis. Smurfit-Stone generated revenue of $7.4 billion in 2007.


"finding it increasingly harder to sell [lumber] products." (0.00 / 0)
SNIP:

F. H. Stoltze Land & Lumber Company announced Tuesday that it would temporarily shut down its Columbia Falls sawmill, laying off 45 to 50 employees.

In a prepared statement, Stoltze said the "shutdown is fueled by continuing poor lumber markets across the broader United States. Lumber producers like Stoltze are finding it increasingly harder to sell their product and to realize above break-even margins in this climate."

Entire article at: http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/...


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