The news:
Bipartisan negotiations on the Senate Finance Committee are moving closer to eliminating two health care provisions favored by many Democrats - a mandate on employers to provide insurance or pay a penalty, and a government insurance option, a senator and health care insiders said Monday.
That could bring even greater pressure on Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who has been challenged by more liberal senators who say he is sacrificing key Democratic priorities on health care reform to win the votes of a few Republicans.
More here and here.
In short, the bill scraps the public option and shifts the insurance mandate onto the shoulders of individuals.
Nate Silver crunches the numbers:
The AP may be right that Baucus's bill will cost less than $1 trillion, but it accomplishes that by shifting the burden to middle-income families, some of whom have poor balance sheets and will face a really tough choice between paying for health insurance they can't quite afford and facing some kind of penalty. Odds are that many of them will take the penalty, which is why coverage probably won't expand very much. Or, the enforcement mechanisms could be more stringent, in which case they'll have to buy health care, at the cost of reducing their spending in other areas -- and in probably being very teed off at the Democrats who passed the bill**.
This is a pretty poor combination of attributes for a health care reform bill to have. If Baucus & Co. wanted to get the cost below $1 trillion, they could have chopped the subsidies down to, say, 350 percent of poverty, while keeping the employer mandate and the public option. As a very rough guess, a bill like that might insure another 30-35 million people at a gross cost of about $850-$900 billion. The actual Baucus bill is going to cost about the same but will be lucky to insure half as many.
Silver also notes that about 15 million Americans, as a result of this bill, would lose their employer-provided insurance and be forced to buy an expensive individual policy or pay a fine. Silver's rhetorical question: "You think those 15 million people are going to vote for the Democrats again, like, ever?"
In short, this compromise bill is a big, steaming bowl of dogsh*t served up to the American people, and we are vastly better off with no bill and the status quo.
Jonathan Cohn on the group of Senators working with Baucus on the compromise bill:
I'm not sure it makes sense to kick and scream about all of this right now. Getting a bill out of Finance, any bill, will move things along. There's always the Senate floor--where the FInance bill must be merged with the bill from Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee--and then confernece committee. But it's important to note just how skewed this group is. |