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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

Nothing Will Come of Nothing

by: Yellowstone Kelly

Thu Oct 08, 2009 at 07:30:57 AM MST


The country's political landscape changing right under our feet. Did the shift occur while we were sleeping? Or, did anything actually change as a result of last year's elections?

In 2008, the rallying cry was for Democrats. "Let us govern and we'll show you."

After 8 years of Bush II, we had enough, and the country elected a D President and returned D's in larger numbers to serve as the majority party in their respective chambers, including a then near-filibuster proof Senate. When the Coleman-Franken recount stretched into tax season, D's reassured America that with the magic number of 60 Senators, all things are possible. Just believe.

Well, as we've seen, the 60 votes in the Senate aren't working out that well. I'd say the guy hunched over his breakfast at the diner in Circle would tell you the R's are still running the country (or doing a tremendous job of keeping the D's from doing so).

And home, let's face it: Montana is still a red state.

When it came to the US Senate race in 2008, one could argue that Max was the more Republican of the two. Max didn't even break a sweat. (By the way, has anyone ever seen Max sweat?)

Schweitzer was re-elected overwhelmingly over the hapless Roy Brown.

And, yes, the D's won all of the other statewide offices (attorney general, secretary of state, superintendent of public instruction, auditor) for the first time in 60 years. But, there's been a few blue moons in the meantime and it was bound to happen sooner or later. After all, look at the quality of some of the R opposition: Brad Johnson? Ellie Sollie Hermanson?

Even in the lean years during the 1990's, the D's managed to win most of these statewide offices, but the R's repeatedly produced trifectas, with lopsided wins for governor and 2 to 1 majorities in both houses of the legislature.

In 2008, the D's picked up a seat on the Public Service Commission and now hold 4 of the 5 seats.

But, despite unparalleled campaign resources, D's lost a total of 3 seats in the Senate and scratched out enough seats (a net gain of 1) to earn a tie in the House.

Incidentally, for the benefit of younger readers and immigrants of a progressive persuasion, D's haven't controlled both houses of the legislature at the same time since 1991.

So, where does that leave Montana progressives at the cusp of the 2010 election cycle?

Yellowstone Kelly :: Nothing Will Come of Nothing
The D's, as the nominal majority party, have almost no central office staff. No executive director, no organized fundraising effort, no mission statement and a past party chair who is woefully underperforming in an attempt to win the opportunity to unseat Dennis.

Behind the scenes, there is infighting with Max at the center.

"Max isn't a progressive." No, he's not. Never has been. And, more importantly, he is not up for re-election until 2014. Do you really think he is going to change? Remember in 2002 when he not only supported the Bush tax cut, but then used the footage of Big George signing the legislation in his campaign advertisements? And Max will tell you when the health care war is over not to judge him solely by his work on behalf of the insurance industry. Progressives will, of course.

"We need Brian in Washington, DC to drain the swamp. He's a real progressive." Is he? Likes coal. Likes guns. Can say what he wants to without having to cast a single vote on health care reform. Can we identify a legacy of progressive policies he leaves behind in 2013 of anything besides spending more money on education? And, before you bring it up, please take a careful look what was sacrificed to secure 'clean and green' and how much wind generation capacity would have been expanded no matter who had been elected in 2004. (Does anyone remember Bob Brown?)

And, Tester? Max casts a long shadow. And many "progressives" are wailing over the jobs and timber legislation Jon is rolling out. Depending on how health care reform, financial institutions reform and climate change go in the next 6 months, it will be duck and cover for Congressional D's, including Jon as he prepares for re-election in 2012.

Denny is being challenged by a troika of well-intentioned, but woefully outmatched candidates. The boat crash may actually serve to galvanize his base. After all, he has no record of accomplishments to run on.

Remember: Obama's election was secured without Montana's electoral votes. No, our votes went the way of McCain and Palin. Good Lord!

In the more conservative reaches of the state, where politically savvy progressive D's with solid progressive credentials were running, Obama's race and perceived weakness on guns caused the whacko base to turn out. He lost those counties and took these legislative candidates with him.

Now we have the birthers, tea-baggers, tenthers and more guns.

And, you think it's gonna improve?

The pendulum likely started swinging back toward the right in December and January as worried white suburbia began to have a bit of buyer's remorse. The D's, frankly, have done everything to reinforce those second thoughts and sped up the velocity of the rightward swing, not just for the President, but for D's in a more global sense. Has the D Congress done anything 'progressive' this session? Stopped a war? Reformed a corrupt and inequitable tax system? Reduced our carbon footprint by as much as a ton of carbon?

Given the seats up for re-election in the state Senate next year, the D's will be lucky to hold their 24 seats. In the House it's a crap shoot.

Majority parties come and go. The D's, as the nominal progressive party, will be tested to put a year and one-half of malaise behind them and to pull together. Its base is full of disenchanted dreamers, who expected something in exchange for their sweat and dollars, and may simply sit out the next campaign cycle. D leaders need to start leading and inspire its base to keep the faith as part of a longer-term process to take back the country and Montana.

If they cannot and do not, when it's all over next November, the Treasure State will be shrouded by a reddish hue as a twenty-first century political equivalent of Red Skies Over Montana.

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Interesting analysis (0.00 / 0)

It won't be just Montana with a 'reddish hue' it'll be the USA - most pundits are predicting that Obama will be a death-knell for Dem candidates nationwide, especially as his failures mount.

Having Nancy Pelosi as the face of the Democratic Party won't help either.

As you pointed out, Denny is in no danger of not being re-elected, and I expect the Dems to focus their money on winnable races again, and leave their nominee on their own pretty much.

The only drama I'm wondering about, is just how important it'll be for the Dems to hang onto the Governors office.

Schweitzer doesn't have a strong Lt. Governor to support, he's got John Bohlinger, a man without a party.

So do they convince (Buy off) Bohlinger to resign next year, and put an heir-apparent into his spot?

It should give us lots of political talk -  


yeah... (0.00 / 0)
...as long as Democrats keep acting like Republicans, their chances in the election booth will diminish...

[ Parent ]
The Democrats have done well in Montana ... (4.00 / 1)
considering that it's a conservative state. Redistricting had a lot to do with that.

But key here is that they are merely a "nominal" progressive party. Their real effect is to blunt progressivism.

I wrote more about it here.

http://pieceofmind.wordpress.c...

Very good post by the way, especially the words about Schweitzer. Democrats have the tendency to invest in electoral victory without much examination of substance.  


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