Closer Than We've Ever Been; So Far Left to Go

by: Matt Singer

Wed Oct 28, 2009 at 12:04:26 PM MST

But people have no doubt seen the commentary in the last 48 hours regarding the fact that we don't have 60 votes for cloture in the Senate yet. As I have been before, I'm fundamentally optimistic about this. I think the CBO scoring of the merged bill will come back favorable. I think scores on amendments to remove the public option will put the deficit burden on opponents of the public option. I think choice is fundamentally popular and that Republicans and the sell-out Democrats are facing an uphill battle against polling.

All that being said, the fact that we can't move to a consensus point yet on the public option means that progressives have less leverage on three other important points: financing mechanisms, subsidies for affordability, and the strength of the employer mandate. That may be the reason for the foot dragging. Who knows?

But a few other thoughts:

1. I don't know if Max Baucus has been trying to gut this bill like a fish or busting ass to strengthen it back to his white paper while making sure he has the votes to move forward. I do know that the general momentum in this fight right now is with reformers and specifically with public option advocates and that is both a result of progressive pressure, progressive insiders, and the slow and steady work of Max and his staff and others like him in Congress.
2. The last 48 hours should have proven that while the problem in DC is with 40 given bad votes that require a bill that "runs the table" with Dems and the two Independents, that still means that putting together a bill that can pass is a damn tough thing to do. Both the Senate and the House will be moving toward floor consideration of their respective bills soon. That is historic. It is amazing. But we don't have the votes for cloture yet.
3. The Senate is a uniquely messed up institution. If you've been in the weeds, you've read that Joe Lieberman has agreed to let the health care bill be considered...because the world's greatest deliberative body requires sixty votes for debatee to even begin if a single Senator objects. This same body requires 60 votes to end debate in such a manner that the most unpopular political party in the history of the country or something can literally find one grandstanding member of the majority and lock down the chamber. Why no one has launched a full-frontal assault on the chamber's structure and existence in American political life is, frankly, beyond me.