Set thine House in order

by: Yellowstone Kelly

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 09:20:47 AM MST

At first blush, the answer is 'yes,' of course. You then recite the litany of reasons. Rehberg evil. Me good. You (and, your spouse if you have one), family and friends and supporters decide to go for it.

Then, the reality of the undertaking sets in.

Consider this:

A primary is inevitable. And, you need money. A lot of it.

To make the math easy, let's say you need to raise at least $1.5 million to be credible candidate and you intend to raise it over an 18-month period. Your campaign would need to raise approximately $77,000 a month, or $19,200 a week, or $2,700 every day.

For 18 months.

Of course, things will be slow starting out, so the averages listed above go up, depending on how slowly you make it out of the gate.

You won't have much of a staff. You can't afford one. Volunteers are OK, but you need to spend hours and hours on the phone groveling for dough and then bird-dogging those who agree to contribute to make sure they do.

Money. Money. Money.

You need to work with the D Party's balky central committees. In counties where they exist at all, they are like fiefdoms, filled with intrigue and strife between the ruling factions and the wannabe factions.

But, you persevere and somehow win the primary.

You got your dream match: Denny Rehberg. He's won five times. The first time he ran the margin of victory over Nancy Keenan was close, but he won. Since then, he has mopped the floor and the outcome has been the same. 2002: Steve Kelly - not close. 2004: Tracy Velasquez - not close. 2006: Monica Lindeen - not close. 2008: John Driscoll -  really, really not close.

In fact, incumbents just don't lose very often. The last incumbent member of Congress from Montana to lose was Conrad Burns (2006). Before that, you have to go back to 1988, when John Melcher was defeated by . . . Conrad Burns.

The same thing is true with incumbent statewide office holders. They rarely lose. Secretary of State Brad Johnson lost in 2008. Before that, the last incumbent statewide office holder to lose was Governor Tom Judge, who was defeated in the D primary in 1980.

You might not like Denny, but he is slick:

Congressman Rehberg's priorities for the future are clear: he wants to ensure American security at home and abroad, provide for a quality public education so that every child has the ability to achieve his or her fullest potential, and is committed to keeping America's promise to our senior citizens by preserving Social Security and Medicare, which now offers a comprehensive prescription drug benefit.

What's not to like about a fellow who wants to take care of kids and old people? Protect America? Medicare? and, Social Security?

But somehow, you find the right message and win.

Your first mission, that is after you begin to adapt to the culture shock and find your office and your place in the pecking order of 435 members (read: bottom), is to get re-elected. That means you start raising money for your next campaign and you amass frequent flyer miles, flying back and forth between Washington, DC and Montana every weekend.

It used to be that Congressional races ran on an 18-month cycle, with opponents lining up in spring following the election. Dennis McDonald announced his candidacy in early March 2009, just over four months after Rehberg's election.

Individuals who run for Congress are nice people, I suppose. They would likely make good neighbors. The type of folks who would keep the crabgrass down.

The emerging D lineup for 2010 is no exception.

1.Dennis McDonald. The first to announce. Former attorney, now ranches near Melville. Despite the fact he served as chair of D Party (2005-2009) and rubs elbows with the crème d la crème of the D Party, his campaign to date has been uninspiring and listless. Despite all of its promise at the outset, his campaign has underachieved and seriously mis-stepped on Denny's boat incident.

2.Tyler Gernant . A very youthful aspirant from Missoula. Attorney. Could easily be mistaken for a staffer. Has been remarkably successful in keeping pace with the McDonald campaign fundraising totals, but, to date, nowhere near the amounts listed above to competitive. Keen awareness about message.

3.Melinda Gopher. A member of Blackfeet Tribe. Grew up in Great Falls in a family known for activism and courage. Paralegal who wants to be an attorney. Just entered the race. While an unknown quantity, she appears to have what it takes to draw attention to her campaign.

It is early. However, as of this writing, none of these candidates appears to have the snap and appeal to mount much of a threat to a wealthy, out-of-touch, self-centered, ineffective, whacko five-term member of Congress.

Anyone else out there prepared to step up the starting line?