| Let's start with some data. The Harvard Institute of Politics did a poll (pdf), and found that 58 percent of voters between 18 and 29 approve of President Obama's job performance, despite disagreeing with him on most major issues. The same report published the 2008 general election exit polls, and found that 66 percent of 18 to 29 year-olds voted for Obama, while 32 percent voted for McCain. The drop-off seems slight. That's confirmed by the latest Research 2000 poll, which shows 18 to 29 year olds with a 78/16 favorable/unfavorable rating of the president, compared to a 39/51 rating by 30 to 44 year olds.
(Incidentally, that same 30 to 44 year-old voting group went for Obama at a 52/46 clip according to the exit polls published in the Harvard Institute of Politics report. Which tells me that Rethink 08 is probably targeting the wrong demographic.)
So what's Messina talking about when he says that the "enthusiasm generated by the Obama camp has cooled over the last nine months..."? What's he looking at? Could it be "Organizing for America" - the "successor organization to Obama for America," which was supposed to revolutionize modern politics by channeling electoral enthusiasm and organization into a permanent grassroots campaign intended to support the president's agenda? While the group has influenced, say, the health care debate, you could hardly call it a trans formative effort. Not that anyone should be surprised: organizing around compromised, lukewarm, and dynamic legislation ain't much of draw, especially when you consider the group's biggest asset - the president - is absent from the campaign. I don't mean to slam OFA; I just wonder if the expectations for its effectiveness were overstated by the administration.
And what about this "rethink" assumption? As if somehow young voters would have selected someone else in the voting booth, had they the chance to do it all over. Here's an interesting exchange from the discussion on that topic:
Rethink08: Clarification: The Rethink08 project is not placing judgment on any generation. We are merely investigating patterns of involvement with young people and politics.
Rethink08: To all of our panelists: Would young people have followed Obama as much if he was a Republican?
Jason Wiener: I'm detecting some skepticism about the basic project here in the comments. I think it is warranted. From what I know of rethink08, it starts from the premise that such-and-such a thing has happened, and I haven't seen that conclusion earned. A lot of the statements about young people seem to generalize about a class of people that isn't well-defined or described.
[Comment From ErinErin:] Yes, but it does seem like you are asking leading questions. Even the title is quite leading...
ctibor.jappel: I don't really think so - there were strong liberal generations that elected John F. Kennedy in the 60's. It would be rather interesting to see whether today's Obama supporters will turn into more conservative voters in the future - the fate of the current "democratic surge" will largely depend on that...
[Comment From Matt SingerMatt Singer:] What does it mean would people have followed Obama as much if he was a Republican? Do you mean if he had the exact same stances? Is there any chance that the Republican Party of the current era would nominate a liberal black man for the office of the President?
Bingo. If "Obama were a Republican"? But then he'd be saddled with all the open sores and political deformities of the Republican party, wouldn't he? While Democratic enthusiasm is dipping - more so among older voters - approval of the Republican party is dismally low, disapproval astonishingly high. Outside of a passionate group of talk-radio followers impervious to reason, there's not much support for Republicans. I suspect that the overwhelming majority of us, faced with the same choice now that we had in 08, would vote the same way, and with an even greater sense of urgency, given the direction and temperament of the Republican party since Inauguration Day.
Again, from the "Rethink 08" discussion:
Rethink08: Due to time constraints, our final question for all panelists is the following: If you could take back your 2008 vote, would you?
Jason Wiener: No....
Jeff: No, I think that I voted for the best person given the choices in 2008.
ctibor.jappel: I didn't vote in the 2008 presidential election (as a non-resident). But if I had voted, I would probably have voted for Obama. And I won't regret it now....
Whatever. The point here is that efforts by groups like "Rethink 08" do create memes that get carried into electoral politics in ways that matter. In this case, it's a meme with a strong draw: that young voters don't show up when you need them. In 2008, of course, that wasn't the case: young voters turned out in record-setting numbers. And the numbers don't bear out the premise of the project, either. Young voters are the president's biggest supporters still, and in numbers not much, if at all, lower than in 2008.
But if the young don't turn out in 2010 and vote, they might bear the blame for Democratic failures.
That's a shame for a couple of reasons. First, if they don't come out, it'll be part of a larger trend and the result of reforms that are too conservative and ineffective for most ardent Democrats. Second, if the meme takes hold, that could mean the issues of the young are put aside or ignored altogether. And then enthusiasm for politics would really drop for young voters. |
