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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

Why not ditch the excise tax?

by: Jay Stevens

Fri Jan 15, 2010 at 14:35:47 PM MST


Ezra Klein comments on a legislative compromise with unions over the excise tax, defending the compromises to appease opponents of the tax.

But here's the paragraph I want to talk about:

But if you think that the administration will simply give up on the excise tax -- which does them virtually no good in the first 10 years anyway -- why is it in there at all? It's unpopular with their allies and wins them no friends among their enemies. Indeed, it's easy to see why so few presidents attempt cost control: You get hammered by the people who usually like you and dismissed by the people who usually like cost controls but don't fundamentally trust you. That leaves you with, well, virtually no one.

First, the excise tax has nothing to do with cost control. It will not cut costs. Causing consumers to ditch good insurance plans will have two effects: One, they will pay more out-of-pocket for health care. Two, they will avoid seeking medical care when possible and in the long run, as a direct result, will consume more health care and more expensive health care than otherwise.

Second...it does beg the question, why is the administration so devoted to the excise tax?

Maybe they do believe, like Ezra, who's apparently here internalized private insurers' profiteering logic, that it will control costs. (Although, from experience, we know it doesn't.) More likely, IMHO, they need a funding mechanism for the bill they're passing, and are justifying it as a cost-control measure. And it's aimed at unions because they're easier to disappoint than deep-pocketed private insurers.

Jay Stevens :: Why not ditch the excise tax?
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No (0.00 / 0)
Jay, we're talking about $24,000 a year plans here. That is obscene. You do not need $24,000 a year plans to get preventive treatments. Very few people pay that much now, and if the cost of health care grows quickly enough so that that would be the norm in the near future, then we are all screwed.

And you think private insurance LIKES getting a tax slapped on them? Please explain the logic behind that. Accusing someone of being on the side of insurers is a sad crutch in lieu of a real argument.


clarifying... (0.00 / 0)
$24K a year, with vision and dental, is far from obscene. And as health care costs climb, more and more plans will fall under this limit.

I never said that insurance companies will benefit from the tax -- tho' I suspect they'd like to shed these plans, too -- I said the premise is based on profiteering assumptions, the "moral hazard" reckoning of health care, which essentially posits the more you have to pay of something, the less likely you're going to consume it frivolously.

Only thing is, that's not how health care consumption works. Lower-priced plans have higher deductibles, which mean that non-checkup office and emergency room visits for small injuries or conditions will be paid for out-of-pockets, meaning that people will avoid seeing the doctor for minor ailments. Some of which can turn into major ailments quickly, which turns into higher expense.

If you want know why health care costs in the US have soared while general health has declined, look no further than "moral hazard" reckoning.


[ Parent ]
Look...why not (0.00 / 0)
go into the politics behind the hiring of the genius that put the "study" together that is the basis for the tax? Why not look at the flawed logic in that study that when those plans are taxed employers will opt for cheaper plans and pass the savings along to their employees in the form of higher wages...did Ezra mention that this excise tax is suppose to raise $150 billion...the actual tax on the health insurance plans raises something like $40 billion and the "projected" revenue from tax on the increased wages generates the remaining $110 billion????

And that is the linch pin in the whole "this plan lowers the deficit" argument..and brings the plan in under the magic $1 trillion dollar number...and that is why Obama is not letting go...hey, he didn't pay Gruber $400,000 for nothing!


CBO (0.00 / 0)
That number is from the CBO. Instead of bleeting about conspiracy theories involving competent knowledgeable people who have made health care their life's work and happen to get grants from HHS, why not take it up with where the number actually came from? Gruber doesn't control the CBO.

[ Parent ]
Chris...Gruber was modeling various scenerios (0.00 / 0)
for the White House...no "conspiracy theory" there...simply the facts...so it is no surprise that the final version of the excise tax in the Senate plan works with the numbers coming from the CBO...

Here's something from FDL:

"In one explanation to Ben Smith, Gruber said,

Gruber said his work for the administration was running the sort of cost simulations that the Congressional Budget Office does, based on a model that he'd spent 10 years developing. "I'm the numbers guy," he said.

Part of its value, Cohn writes, is that it helped the administration predict CBO scores."

NOTICE Gruber says his work for the WH was being "the numbers guy"

As for the $2000 health insurance plan...that is pretty easy to reach that number on a family plan that includes dental and vision and has a low deductible/out of pocket cost.  Heck, we were paying over $400 per employee at our non profit 10 years ago, and it was a crap plan...real crap.


[ Parent ]
Huh? (0.00 / 0)
Chris...Gruber was modeling various scenerios
for the White House...no "conspiracy theory" there...simply the facts...so it is no surprise that the final version of the excise tax in the Senate plan works with the numbers coming from the CBO...

That statement quite clearly makes no sense.  The final version to the Senate came from the CBO, so it somehow came from the White House via Gruber?  That's truly a WTF, right there.  And don't bother to point me to FDL.  I've already read the very conspiracy theories there you're trying to foist here.  You and the FirePumas are trying to prove that the White House was the second shooter on the grassy knoll.  Fine.  One does wonder, however, why you pulled that $2000 number right out of your ass.  These aren't the numbers you're looking for.  Could it be, you are delusionally wrong?  Why of course it could.

I don't like the excise tax either.  I think it relies on creative accounting.  But that isn't your agenda, Bigsage.  Your agenda is to blame the White House for the creative accounting so that you can accomplish ... what exactly?  I think it's so that you can claim you weren't responsible when you throw an interception to the bad guys.  It was the White House that betrayed us, and turned us over to the authoritarians yet again.  

From the insight of TBogg, I offer you this wisdom, kitten.  Masada wasn't a notch in the "Win" column.


[ Parent ]
Gee Wulfgar (0.00 / 0)
you don't suppose Max Baucus was handed some numbers by the White House to incorporate into the Senate bill? Numbers that they knew would give them what they wanted from the CBO?

Yeah, I blame the White House...they have been working this since January 2009....Gruber said he's their numbers guy...do you think he's running these numbers and they're going into a black hole at the WH? They were used to craft the Senate bill, and like you said, it's creative accounting that won't work as advertised...


[ Parent ]
Hitting the facts, but missing the point (0.00 / 0)
Sage, you and FDL are going to great lengths to show what is rather obvious.  The problem is that you imply some kind of corruption behind it.  What makes this funny to myself and others is that you folks are pointing to SOP as if we should be horrified by it.  Why?  Are Gruber's numbers incorrect?  No, they're not.  His modeling, as you point out, is exactly what would pass the CBO review.  THAT'S exactly what he was paid to do.  He didn't make the numbers up, and he didn't lie about the result.  You point to the process and scream "UNACCEPTABLE" because you don't like the result.  That's understandable, but hardly shocking, and certainly not corrupt.

[ Parent ]
I'd say the problem with Gruber (0.00 / 0)
is that he blew his credibility when he lied to the Times and the Post and other major news outlets when he didn't disclose his contracts with the WH, when asked to do so.

It's not so much disliking his numbers, as it is that I no longer trust anything he has done, or his opinion about his work at HHS since he was paid to produce numbers for Obama.

And when the whole success or failure of reform is predicated on the analysis of a deceptive researcher, and his opinion on those numbers and on the WH and Congress' legislation, then I think it is good to put it all in perspective.

Gruber had an incentive to paint a pretty picture of legislation deriving from his research. As a professional coup--getting his ideas, research, and analysis translated into mega-legislation--Gruber had every incentive to advocate for his position in the media after he had been paid by the WH to do the research.  A proper response to the media would have been to disclose his conflict of interest. And then his commentary could have been put into context. Or he could have refused to comment on matters relating to his research, referring the questions to his HHS overseers.

Yet his advocacy for his work and the legislation deriving from it was in the media was not paid for by the WH. And Gruber failed to disclose his being paid to produce numbers for Obama. So I can only conclude that it was not a simple oversight on Gruber's part to not disclose his contracts with the WH. It was intentional.

Either way--whether intentional or not--Gruber's nondisclosure is big. If it was an oversight, then what other oversights has this supposedly meticulous researcher done? If intentional, then one must conclude that Gruber had other than disinterested goals in mind when he attempted to influence the public debate by speaking to the media.

And of course, back to my point about Gruber having lost my, and many others' trust, is that if his modeling proves incorrect, and the whole reform mechanism backfires in unpredictable ways, we can point back to Gruber's dishonesty and the lack of credible oversight of his work as the point where this particular derailment began. And that is a trillion dollar gamble I, and many others, would rather not take.

While not corrupt, Gruber's actions are certainly not acceptable for a researcher. He most likely should face some professional reprimand as his actions were unethical.

Nor is it acceptable for an administration that came to power on a promise of transparency to allow a deception like Gruber's to be perpetrated knowledgeably. If the WH--and I'm pointing directly at Rahm and Messina here--can't see the error of their ways, then I predict that we will have much more Bush-style deception in the years to come. And that is the ugly elephant in the room here.


[ Parent ]
Wulfgar (0.00 / 0)
I think when the White House, and others, are running around for months talking up these studies and propagating the lie that there's all kinds of data to support this idea that when employers cut health care expenses they pass it along to their employees, and only later do we learn that the ONLY one doing these studies is Gruber....you have a problem...and to be honest with you, I don't see it as being any different than manufacturing a story about "yellow cake from Niger", or weapons of mass destruction in Iraq...its the old "lets create a story, a scenario, a meme, that will support our agenda"...that is fine and good, but lets be honest about what you're doing....

But looking at the assumption, that costs savings from switching from "Cadillac" plans to "Impala" plans will be passed along to employees is just plain not going to happen. So this excise tax as a funding mechanism is set up to fail...the latest from "emptywheel" looks at Safeway and their efforts to lower insurance costs...very interesting.


[ Parent ]
~sigh~ (0.00 / 0)
I think when the White House, and others, are running around for months talking up these studies and propagating the lie that there's all kinds of data to support this idea

There IS all kinda data to support that.  It doesn't matter whether you think people should distrust it.  Many of us do.  But it doesn't make it a "lie".  You have an interest in trying to convince me of such, Sage, at which point, you are lying.  Don't do that.  That's all I'm saying.  


[ Parent ]
Actually, I think that after tomorrow (0.00 / 0)
this whole thread--and two years worth of debate here at LitW on HCR--may become academic.

[ Parent ]
Wulfgar (0.00 / 0)
what part of this do you disagree with? What part of this leads you to believe I'm delusional?

"Glenn Greenwald has an appropriate response. For instance, Glenn notes that Gruber's explanation to Krugman, which offers new information, makes this even more troubling:

I was contracted with HHS for technical modeling assistance. When designing a policy like this, policy makers want to consider a million different permutations: different AVs, tax credit amounts, employer assessments, etc. Basically, in a perfect world, we would all just rely on CBO for all these permutations. But CBO has limited resources and can't work directly with the administration. So I provided the administration & congress (mostly senate finance) with the kind of modeling that CBO does to help them narrow options to a more manageable list that they could send to CBO."

So you have Gruber telling Krugman that he was assisting the WH and the Senate Finance Committee with coming up with an excise tax that when reviewed by the CBO, would be politically acceptable.


[ Parent ]
Hmmm (0.00 / 0)
I truly admire his work, for the most part, but Greenwald has rarely been more full-of-sh!t.  He likens Gruber's work to that of those who advised the Bush administration on exactly how to lie to Congress.  Gruber didn't do that.  He advised the White House on how to look at the numbers in order to get an acceptable result; he didn't make the numbers up.  This isn't an outrage to any but those who seek to make it such.  When the Republicants do it, we call it Faux-rage, and rightly laugh at it.  You expect different just because you're progressives attempting it?  You might want to have a little chat with Mark T about that form of propoganda.

[ Parent ]
Jay, I think this (0.00 / 0)
is a much better summary on the excise tax than Ezra's tired bullshit.

http://emptywheel.firedoglake....


Why the devotion to the excise? (0.00 / 0)
Excellent question. Especially because it violates two campaign promises: 1) to not raise taxes on anybody with less than $250,000 income; and 2) that "if you like your insurance, you can keep it." The tax is designed to force people out of those plans.

You posit that the admin weighed unions vs. private insurers. Actually, the bill pits a tax on the wealthy vs. taxing union and middle class good health benefits. And as with the bailout, we saw that the admin preferred wall street over main street. Banks over auto manufacturers. Home lenders over mortgagees.

There's a pattern here that isn't pretty.

And having Obama come in and "rescue" the unions from Congress by carving out exemptions for them, as minimal and tenuous as they may be, puts them in his debt. Ugly politics, too be sure. I think that this might truly be "Chicago politics" at work, orchestrated by Rahm and Axelrod.

And I'm sure it all is geared towards the evolving '12 reelection bid. But Obama's growing "disconnect" with independents and the left will not respond to the hard sell we are about to witness.

I think that it is spelling the end of Obama's mandate, and his majorities in both houses. If the politics of the HCR bill are as bad as I think they are going to be, then '12 will see us swing back to a republican mandate. '10 will just whittle away at current majorities. And the MA senate race is just the clarion call for republicans to rally against a weakening and wounded dem party.

jes sayin'


So very wrong (0.00 / 0)
Remember what Obama's original proposal was? It was to tax the wealthy more by limiting a tax deduction. The Senate basically laughed at him and declared that idea DOA. Several Democratic senators have said they will refuse to vote for the final bill if the excise tax is not included.

Also, how many people do you know with health care benefits that cost $2000 a month? That seems absolutely outrageous to me, it's more than the total monthly cost of a very solid health care plan we have at my 3 person organization. $2000 a month for health insurance is not middle class in my book.


[ Parent ]
It's for family benefits (0.00 / 0)
I believe, Chris, not individual benefits.

[ Parent ]
Crawl back into (0.00 / 0)
your hovel, or hey, about joining the Army! Free health care...money for education...learn a trade!!! Heck, there aren't any jobs, and none will be coming to your neighborhood anytime soon, so what do you say? Isn't enlisting fun!

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