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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

Special Session Crystal Ball

by: Yellowstone Kelly

Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 07:13:47 AM MST


You have to hand it to the Governor; he is fit for any challenge.

He's ready to cut the budget to make sure the state's checkbook is balanced.

He says he is looking high and low for ways to save money. (And, yes, a news release pronounces each one he finds.)

He'll continue to give it his best, but in the end, it won't be enough.

And, guess what?

Special session time.

My bet is that it will occur in mid-April.

That will be after the end of the first quarter of the calendar years. Revenue will continue to stagnate and decline. Couple that with larger than estimated tax refunds for 2009 and you have the makings of a first rate fiscal disaster.

The Governor is allowed only to make funding reductions on about 65 percent of the general fund. That total does not include monies distributed by the state to local school districts, all 438 of them. This total amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars annually. After the first week in May, it would nearly be impossible to change the total number of dollars each district would otherwise receive.

Without dipping into the basic state aid for school districts, the Executive cannot fix the state's checking account problem without practically shutting down the state's human services and corrections programs.

As the fiscal picture continues to deteriorate, there will be more and more pressure to spread the pain.

The Governor will be forced to bring is his pals with the temperament and knives to forge a fix during weeklong session.

The question remains: Can he work with another 150 fellow Montanans fix it? And, how?

Cant' wait to find out.

Yellowstone Kelly :: Special Session Crystal Ball
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The problem isn't "can" (0.00 / 0)
he "must" work with the leg. Because he has no choice. Montana has to have a balanced budget.

So the question is what will he and the current leg do to balance the budget. Surely any numbers pulled out of the hat today will not accurately predict the future. Therefore look to budget cutters to cast a more bleak scenario (and rightly so) than just snipping a little so that we can limp into the '11 session for a new and bigger bandaid.

Cuts are going to be painful. And the republicans are going to be looking for ways to provide some economic stimulus, i.e. tax cuts. So that will amplify the budget cuts needed.

My bet? Cuts to higher education (my suggestion: cut the "elite's" quarter million+ salaries, as symbolic as it may be, it will ease the pain elsewhere), Medicaid (don'tcha wish the feds were taking over the costs for all those new enrollees???) and Corrections (can you say "early release"???). Hiring freeze at the state level. Some incentives for businesses to start hiring--or at least to quit laying off.  

It's going to be ugly. But the work has to get done What did I say a year and a half ago? Oh, yeah. Montana's economic situation tracks the national situation by 18 months. Looks like those 18 months have come and gone, and our piggy bank's been busted. Now we get to suffer like the rest of the nation.

Problem now is, that with that 18 month lag, we'll be lagging behind the rest of the nation by 18 months (or more) when the economy begins to right itself. So I don't look towards Montana's economic situation getting any better until, say, sometime around the next presidential election.

And that means that our next state legislature in '11 will have some heavy lifting to do, as the state retrenches. And if we look to the MA decision for Scott Brown as guidance (and look at Baucus' tanking poll numbers), we will have a tilt in the makeup of the leg to the right. So look to republicans to rake Schweitzer over the coals to enact their agenda. Which of course will be designed to neuter any of Brian's future political goals. Ugly, ugly, ugly politics will reign.


The State took (0.00 / 0)
Stimulus funds and used them for Medicaid - They cannot cut Medicaid now by law. Corrections is only 10% of spending - even cutting it by 50% is not much of an overall reduction. Education is pretty much off the hook for cuts at about 51% of spending. So guess what, that leaves social programs and DPHHS as the sacrificial lamb here. At a time when the programs are needed more than ever.

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