| We all know the real glamour of American politics is what happens in campaigns for the White House, for the US Senate and for Congress. Those contests are followed by races for the Governor's Mansion and the amalgam of statewide races.
Races for the state legislature, on the other hand, tend to be tedious and boring. Some have said they would just as soon watch crabgrass grow or lead paint dry. But, alas, we have no presidential campaign and but one statewide race: Montana's lone Congressional seat. By the looks of how well the D candidates have appointed themselves so far, Denny will have a walk.
So, for you junkies, there are 126 legislative races this year. Normally, there would be 125, but Jesse Laslovich, who is a holdover Senator in the middle of his second four-year term, resigned his seat and state law requires the vacancy to be filled by an election.
Fewer than 15 will determine whether the GOP or the D's control the House and Senate next winter.
To begin, here are five Senate races that will determine the balance of power in the Senate.
R's currently have 27 seats. To have nominal control, the D's must add 2 seats to its current total of 23. That would create a tie. State law provides that the part of the governor is the 'majority' party. To have a real majority, the D's need to pick up 3 seats.
Race #1: Senate District 39. District includes East Helena, Boulder, Whitehall. Terry Murphy (R - incumbent). Jill Cohenour (D - challenger). Terry is a likeable enough fellow. In fact, back in the 1970s, he served in the Senate as a D. While a bit of a maverick at times, his voting record is mainstream R. On paper, this race is close. If Jill can break her well-honed habit of starting slow and never picking up the pace, she could pick up the most vulnerable R seat. Toss up.
Race #2: Senate District 25. Billings. Roy Brown (R - incumbent). Kendall Van Dyk (D - challenger). This race will be in the spotlight for the next seven plus months. OK. Roy was shellacked by Schweitzer in 2008, but he will be very difficult to unseat. Kendall has the ambition and pluck to pull if off. A clash of the titans who represent very different philosophies. Likely to become the most expensive legislative race in Montana history. Will be decided by fewer than four percentage votes either way. Advantage at outset: Brown.
Race #3: Senate District 29. Laurel. Dan McGee (R) seat. Penny Morgan (R). Frederick Schweitzer (D). Representative Penny wants to move over to the upper chamber. Frederick, yes, he is Brian's nephew, wants to make his political mark. Penny has represented half of this district for eight years in the House, winning by wide margins each time. Close on paper, but there may not be enough D votes in the other half of the district. Advantage at the outset: Morgan.
Race #4: Senate District 13. Great Falls. Joe Tropila (D) seat. Ed Buttrey (R). Kathleen Galvin-Halcro (D). Remember Buttrey Food Stores? Same family. Kathleen served four terms in the House before term limits sidelined her. Perhaps a vulnerable seat; maybe not. Depends on the quality of Galvin-Halcro's campaign. Great Falls has a deep-seated D tradition, but things are changing. Advantage at outset: Galvin-Halcro.
Race #5: Senate District 17. Havre. Ken Hansen (D) seat. Rowlie Hutton (R). Bob Bergren (D). For the D's to have any shot at controlling the Senate, Bergren, the outgoing Speaker of the House of Representatives, must hold this seat. Hutton is the pastor of one of those large Sunday warehouse churches. If Bergren commits himself to the task at hand, this seat should stay blue. Advantage at outset: Slightly Bergren.
Projection: After the hundreds of thousands of dollars are spent and the voters badgered for months on end, when the votes are counted, the R's will still have a majority of at least 27 seats.
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