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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

A VERY Cynical Prediction

by: Rob Kailey

Thu Jun 10, 2010 at 15:47:58 PM MST


( - promoted by Jay Stevens)

I posted this in a response to the navel-gazing over the recent primary.  270 rather innocently suggested that Gernant could have won should he find another scandal with which to scourge McDonald.  He was castigated with the claims that McDonald has no skeletons and HOW DARE HE SUGGEST SUCH UNSEEMLY THINGS!!!  Folks, this is politics, and it's very real.

A prediction:
We know that scandals don't have to be real.  They can be fabricated at the drop of a hat.  So, the key to political success is to avoid any ammunition for the other side.  Dennis Rehberg has turned that into an art form.  How many debates did he have with French?  With Otjen?  None?  Typical.  The debates he has with his opposition are always based on party identity, and always geared to venue.  He panders to ideology, knowing that his supporters believe ideology trumps fact.  Always.  He will lie based on audience, well documented in the liberal blogs.  He will change stance at the drop of a question.  Well documented ion liberal blogs.  And he will avoid any factual conflict at all.  And then he will win.

Here's the real prediction. Dennis Rehberg will campaign on listening to the common man, when he hasn't done it for ten years.  He will be promoted and lauded for that by the press and alternative media, with the absence of any critique that he hasn't listened to the common man in 10 years.  He will, in speaking, contradict himself at least twice, and lie more times than any can predict.  And none of it will matter.  Because ideologues, just love the idea of an advocate even if they haven't any clue what they love about that advocacy.  Dennis Rehberg is a richie rich supporter of white male privilege, and that's what the ideologues really truly and dearly love.  He will lie to them profusely, and it won't matter because it will allow them to lie to themselves.

The Rehberg camp will go negative first; I'm expecting within another month.  But it won't be Richie Rich doing it, and it won't be critically examined.  When that is questioned, and it will be, the response will be that McDonald went negative first by questioning the actual stances and votes of Dennis Rehberg.  You see the disconnect, I'm sure.  IOKIYAAR.

Yes, the drunk ass dirty stain on the toilet paper wins this in a landslide.  "The Left" will pat themselves on the back because they took out another DLC tool, who wasn't a progressive, wanting progress and all.  The right will stupidly crow about their awesome victory over the "arrogant lefties".  (To the dim like those in conservoland, that would be ironic.  And it will happen.)  

And the great cycle of life continues.

If there is one thing we might learn from this escapade in idiocy, it is what Rehberg's intentions are for 2012.  That will be worth a look.

Rob Kailey :: A VERY Cynical Prediction
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good call on what will surely be rehberg's "strategy" (0.00 / 0)
I think this is exactly what this tool will do.

Uh, (0.00 / 0)
just a minor correction.  I didn't castigate 270 for anything except implying that McDonald had one or more scandals in his past (you know, that "another" word).  I didn't say how dare he suggest such a thing.  I just wanted him to back up what he said.

He subsequently wrote somewhere that he guessed there probably weren't any scandals.

Meanwhile, I've tried to check up on the Jimmy the Weasel connection.  It appears that, as a 29-yr. old lawyer in California, McDonald represented him and even knew him socially.  I see nothing wrong here.  A poor young lawyer can't be too picky in his clients.  Besides, in the end, he turned his client into a government witness who helped bring down a whole lot of other gangsters.

Doesn't sound like much of scandal to me.    


It shouldn't be a scandal. (0.00 / 0)
You are familiar with the life of John Adams, yes?  Everyone, in this country of law, is entitled to defense.  To a rational populace, that's all that should need to be said or written.

That doesn't mean that Denny Rich's campaign won't make the effort.


[ Parent ]
McDonald and Fratianno (0.00 / 0)
The more I look into this connection, the more positive it seems.  McDonald needs to play this very colorful part of his history up. His adventures with Jimmy the Weasel would make a damned good movie, and he'd be the hero.

A young, virtually unknown lawyer, he took on Fratianno as a client.  He needed the money and he probably thought a high-profile case would be good for his career. There was nothing in the least wrong with his doing so.  Providing a vigorous defense to even the most deplorable people is at the heart of our justice system.

But the outcome was far better than he could've hoped for. McDonald persuaded Fratianno, his client, to cooperate with the FBI to bring down more than a dozen other gangsters. Maybe no other lawyer would've been able to carry this off.

In the movie, I see Dennis being played by Leonardo Dicaprio.

Rehberg is colorless, dull.  He's a privileged kid who parlayed a lot of money into even more money and bought a political office with it.


[ Parent ]
I'm supporting McDonald 100% (0.00 / 0)
but he sure did a mediocre job of defending himself when some punk with a video camera ambushed him with the 'Jimmy the Weasel' question (and I'm sure we've all seen that video by now).

McDonald will have to be tougher and sharper in any future confrontation with 'Denny the Weasel' or members of Denny's staff.  


[ Parent ]
Pete: McDonald 100% support (0.00 / 0)
I guess that means the enlightened left have embraced McDonald's pro corporate development of coal.

"So long sad times
Go long bad times
We are rid of you at last

Howdy gay times
Cloudy gray times
You are now a thing of the past

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again.."

At least there will be fuel to cook the subsidized chicken. Enjoy!


[ Parent ]
Not really Craig (0.00 / 0)
But since Rehberg would encourage BP to drill for oil in Flathead Lake, I'll go with McDonald.  And yes, Tokarski, I know it's triangulation.

[ Parent ]
Pete (2.00 / 1)
just a friendly tweak.  How can a person  100% support a candidate but cherry pick his  positions?  ;?p

Seriously, don't McDonald and Rehberg share about 70% similar views on matters like coal?


[ Parent ]
Really? (0.00 / 0)
And exactly what do you mean by "cherry picking"?

[ Parent ]
If we're being cynical, (0.00 / 0)
then may I suggest that as the Rehberg/McDonald race devolves into mudslinging, that the rest of us start building a case against why Rehberg should become our next senator or governor in 2012. And work on finding a good candidate to run for his house seat in 2012.

Yeah, basically I'm agreeing with Wulfgar! that "the drunk ass dirty stain on the toilet paper wins this in a landslide". And knowing that going in, it is hard to generate much enthusiasm for the McDonald campaign. So the dems need to start recruiting some damn good candidates to run against Rehberg in '12, or he'll get what ever piece of the pie he want. Maybe we should give him a Judy Martz makeover and put up some billboards. Or make him out to be the perfect gumby replacement for Max.


Bullock. He's charismatic, young, can raise a lot of (4.00 / 1)
money, has name recognition, is popular and knows how to run a good campaign. He'll finally be Rehberg's nemesis.

I believe he'll run and win. And in 2010, we'll need to get McDonald as close to Rehberg as possible to save our down-ballot races.  


[ Parent ]
Bullock (0.00 / 0)

Bullock polled well statewide, and I had him as the one Schweitzer would tap to be his 'replacement' right up until Bullock endorsed Obamacare. He tossed away a lot when he did that.

[ Parent ]
IMO that won't hurt him that much as a (0.00 / 0)
gubernatorial candidate, he won't vote on it anyway. Plus, did he endorse it or just refuse to support the constitutional challenge to it (which is totally unjustified in my opinion).

[ Parent ]
Oh, it'll hurt him - (0.00 / 0)

Because if/when Bullock pursues higher office in 2012, when there'll be a national referendum on the Obama administrations failures, I intend to label him an ardent admirer of Obama, and back up my claim with his endorsement of Obamacare.

[ Parent ]
The analysis I've heard (0.00 / 0)
is that Rehberg just isn't up to a Senate campaign against an incumbent.  He'd actually have to engage, work hard and debate -- not particularly his strong suits.

Rehberg is comfy in his do-nothing role as congressman, they say, and will hold on to that job, although I suppose a run for governor is possible. But he'd be a single termer, if elected, since Montanans would actually see him 'at work' up in Helena.


[ Parent ]
Sorry, but I can't count McDonald out just yet. (0.00 / 0)
Look, there are LOTS of people in Montana who know Dopey and don't like him a'tall, for he's been a nasty, nasty man.  He has a history.  I don't believe that he's all that invincible.  What McDonald has to do is to carry Dopey's message to its logical conclusion each and every time.  Example:  Dopey just LUVS him the teabaggers. In fact, Dopey is pretty much a teabag aficionado!  SO, what McDonald has to do is tie Dopey and the teabaggers together at each and every opportunity!  Portray them as inextricablly locked in the teabag position!  THEN, run with it!

Take every extreme teabag position, take it to its conclusion, and wack Dopey over the head with it repeatedly!  ie.  The teabagger woman in Nevada wants to do away with even SSI!  Well, there's your club, McDonald.  Pick it up and start wackin' Dopey in the teabags with it!  

As Wulfgar points out, it's  gonna get ugly.  That's a given.  And Dopey's camp will do it w/o facts.  McDonald can use Dopey's record AND his teabagger pal's facts!  I do not think that this race is over already.  Dopey's unpopularity combined with his nearly killing his entire staff while shitfaced drunk will turn a lot of people against him.


Yes, you CAN count him out Larry - (0.00 / 0)

Take a look at the history of the Montana Democrats when it comes to opposing Denny.

They'll support McDonald the same way they did the last 4 candidates.


[ Parent ]
Don't forget, Eric (0.00 / 0)
Max got his Senate job by beating Rehberg.  And nobody can call Max a charismatic candidate.

[ Parent ]
He already was a two-term incumbent though at that point. (0.00 / 0)
That's a huge advantage.  

[ Parent ]
Couple'a points, Eric. (0.00 / 0)
McDonald's an Ag guy, a real Ag guy.  He  resonates with the cattle folks, whereas Dopey's a phony.  This is a strong suit and McDonald has to play it.

Also, many folks are tired of the teabag nonsense which Dopey embraces whole-heartedly.  Again, McDonald must really hammer home the extreme nature of teabagger proposals, and he must offer up clear, workable, understandable alternatives and compare and contrast them to the cut-at-all-costs schemes of the righties.  

In other words, there's lots of grist for the mill.  Now, will McDonald run a smart, tough, energetic campaign?  That's the great unknown.  If he does, it'll be a horse race.


[ Parent ]
Ag contributions (0.00 / 0)
have gone to Rehberg by a margin greater that 2 to 1.

[ Parent ]
In the past. (0.00 / 0)
Can't live in the past, Craig.  I'm saying that McDonald's Ag credentials will be a plus that he can build on.  Ya know, I'm just saying that I suspect that this thing will be a lot closer than some folks predict.  I could be wrong, but we'll  see.

[ Parent ]
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