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Barack Obama
"Lincoln Sells Out Slaves"
by: Rob Kailey - Sep 13
1 Comments
If You Haven't Seen This
by: Rob Kailey - Apr 28
5 Comments
Impeach the President?
by: Rob Kailey - Mar 16
15 Comments
It's the system, stupid!
by: Jay Stevens - Oct 25
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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

Searching for a third option

by: Jay Stevens

Thu Jul 15, 2010 at 11:09:00 AM MST


I have no doubt that what Ochenski writes this week is correct:

The air has gone out of the Democrats' balloon, not in a burst, but in a series of tiny, endless leaks. Now, we are treated to the same choice we've had in the past-voting for the lesser of two evils this November. So take your pick; it's either the wicked corporate-puppet Republicans or the supposedly slightly less wicked, corporate-puppet Democrats. The White House, too late, sees the writing on the wall. Unfortunately, it's in their own hand.

Or, as Greg Sargent put it in a beautiful riposte to the usual insider complaining about blogger and activist "lamentations...unhinged from historical context or contemporary political realities," "the White House has remained captive to a Beltway culture that fetishizes bipartisanship and has failed to seize this historical moment's potential to dramatically expand the boundaries of what's politically possible...."

There are political realities - like the Senate filibuster, Ben Nelson, and deep-pocketed lobbyists - and, given the context, the Obama administration has achieved much, from a DC perspective. Passing a health-care reform bill was nearly politically impossible - but then we ended up with a deeply flawed bill that doesn't address what's wrong with health care. Finance reform was difficult in the face of high-finance lobbying, but the bill only creates new regulations and a new regulatory agency, which will no doubt be under-funded and under-staffed. That is, no real reform happened.

These "victories" preserve institutions that shouldn't be preserved.

Good bye base of the Democratic party. The probable story of the 2010 midterms won't be the "Republican resurgence," although that will be the media line, it'll be Democratic indifference. We already saw that in the Montana primary, in Missoula county's state-low and anemic voter turnout numbers.

But retreat into personal change isn't the answer. Derrick Jensen:

At this point, it should be pretty easy to recognize that every action involving the industrial economy is destructive (and we shouldn't pretend that solar photovoltaics, for example, exempt us from this: they still require mining and transportation infrastructures at every point in the production processes; the same can be said for every other so-called green technology). So if we choose option one-if we avidly participate in the industrial economy-we may in the short term think we win because we may accumulate wealth, the marker of "success" in this culture. But we lose, because in doing so we give up our empathy, our animal humanity. And we really lose because industrial civilization is killing the planet, which means everyone loses. If we choose the "alternative" option of living more simply, thus causing less harm, but still not stopping the industrial economy from killing the planet, we may in the short term think we win because we get to feel pure, and we didn't even have to give up all of our empathy (just enough to justify not stopping the horrors), but once again we really lose because industrial civilization is still killing the planet, which means everyone still loses.

With corporate industry being preserved at all costs by the people we put in power to combat that power, and individual action meaningless as social change, Jensen mulls another option:

The third option, acting decisively to stop the industrial economy, is very scary for a number of reasons, including but not restricted to the fact that we'd lose some of the luxuries (like electricity) to which we've grown accustomed, and the fact that those in power might try to kill us if we seriously impede their ability to exploit the world-none of which alters the fact that it's a better option than a dead planet. Any option is a better option than a dead planet.

The question is, how to go about the third option? Peter Shelton in this week's Indy gravitates towards Earth First!: "When the news spread last year about Tim DeChristopher's impromptu act of civil disobedience in Utah, I thought: Somebody is finally reviving the lost art of environmental monkey-wrenching."

Only those tactics didn't work before, and the media and industry has long since learned how to deal with acts of prankish civil disobedience. It's as good as doing nothing. Worse. This stuff got us Nixon and Reagan and the Bushes. Plus this kind of action is devoid of a coherent means to a goal and devoid of empathy or understanding. "Hope stands in the way of action," said a modern monkey-wrencher; "I don't like the human race," says another, described as expressing a "hard-earned misanthropy." Both attitudes show a fundamental ignorance of how desperate working-class families in rural areas are for work, usually provided by the extraction industry. There's a problem here, but targeting the working stiffs trying to pay the mortgage on the double-wide isn't the answer. So, yeah, count me out.

Other solutions seem equally fruitless. A third party? In winner-take-all elections? Recipe for marginalization and conservative radicalism. "Revolution" is naïve and violent and often produces results worse than the original problems, and chances are the "people" won't be with you.

Personally, I like the idea of finding and electing better people. I think one of the reasons we're stuck with the current political situation, is that the leftward shift of the electorate happened too quickly. There are still too many old-guard politicos in office, with seniority and entrenched insider notions about institutions and governing.

Discuss. What should we do? What should be our methods and goals and expectations?

I know some of you will take this opportunity to rant and rail against this blog, against the state's Democratic delegation, against the president, and against the efforts of honest people. Still, I challenge you: speak positively. What's the best way to turn things around?

Jay Stevens :: Searching for a third option
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What does this mean? (0.00 / 0)
The third option, acting decisively to stop the industrial economy...
I understand the value of outcome visioning, but what is acting decisively here? Assassinations?

yeah... (0.00 / 0)
His implications were a little extreme, as was Shelton's. To me, that kind of violence is political action of futility -- hopeless, as DeChristopher puts it, and to spite people, not benefit them, as Lee implies. And it was kind of weird to see this kind of call to action in Orion.

But I feel people's frustration, and share them to some degree. And I suspect this kind of radicalization will increase as people feel increasingly marginalized. So...what's a better way of expressing it? That's what I was trying to get at...


[ Parent ]
Is Jensen some sort (0.00 / 0)
of Ludite?

Lets go back to Ochenski and where the Democrats are for a minute. I am sick and tired of this "inside the beltway" belief that the ONLY health care bill that could be passed was the one we got. Bullshit!  There was an absolute lack of leadership for anything better. Can you imagine a Civil Rights Bill being passed that was as watered down and as sold out as this? Hell, can you imagine a "Bush Tax Cut" bill being passed as useless as this health care bill?

Yeah, the Democrats are going to lose big time, not just in 2010, but again in 2012. They made this bed, they shit in it, and now they are stuck with it.

Our goals should be to rid ourselves of these old guard politico's who have morphed into corporate shills and who are too damn lazy to lead. The best way to turn this around is to speak up, take over, vote for the good guys and screw the bad guys.  


Reform ballot access laws. (0.00 / 0)
As both name-brand parties become less popular, non-party independents and minor parties are facing new legislation making ballot access more difficult. Montana requires 5000 signatures for minor parties, and 15,359 for candidates to qualify for statewide office.  

Other states are making it nearly impossible to qualify.  For example, in June California passed Proposion 14, which allows only two candidates on the November ballot for Congress and partisan state office races - the two who polled the most votes in the June election.  Write-in votes for these offices can no longer be tallied. It's a monopoly for the Rs and Ds.

Without a fair, free and open system, there will be ever fewer participants, leading to election by smaller and smaller percentages of eligible (or registered) voters.

The the more anti-democratic and corrupt the systems becomes, the tighter the screws. Open it up, or risk losing even public confidence.


"those tactics didn't work before" (0.00 / 0)
Depends on what your expectations were. If you expected Earth First! to save the world, then your expectations were surely dashed. If you expected Earth First! to raise the issue of the rights of endangered species and of the intrinsic value of wilderness; to get the media focused on the destructions of wildlands and habitats, well then it was a resounding success.

Earth First! proclaimed a principle and followed it to its logical means and ends. There was "no compromise in defense of the earth."

Many of us old activists honed our dedication to principle based on Earth First! tactics and strategies.

If there was one thing that could be learned on the positive, its that even though bad shit happens (oil gushers, loss of wildlands, extinctions, etc.) if you have worked on those issues from a point of principle, and not one of compromise, then you don't own the outcome, and your conscience is at ease.


Earth First! = 1979 (0.00 / 0)
The org was founded in '79, hardly a time when environmental empathy grew. If anything, that was the beginning of backlash...the forming of ideological camps pitted against one another (the Sagebrush rebellion kicked off about that time, too).

[ Parent ]
some background and context... (0.00 / 0)
earth first as it was presented to most of us who were organizing mainstream wilderness groups at the time, was a way to move the needle farther to the left so that our positions of saving all roadless lands (little enough to save as it represented only 3% of the country) would look reasonable by comparison.

much the way the teaparty movement has moved the needle far to the right in order to make baucus's great compromise bill look reasonable when in fact it was a sellout to the health insurance industry.

get it, young un?

we need a counterbalance which moves the needle our direction. the american people who are not wealthy in this country are being screwed by all this genuflecting to polite manners by the so-called leaders of the left while the right seizes power.

all this reasonableness on the part of so-called progressives is getting you and this country nowhere.

can you not see that?


[ Parent ]
hm... (0.00 / 0)
I understand the theory...but the country swung sharply to the right on environmental issues when Earth First! made the scene. So I don't see the "success." And the political radicalism of the late 60s split the base of the Democratic party and got Nixon/Reagan elected...race had a place to play, too, of course.

Still, radicalism hasn't been all that successful, either.

Can you not see that?


[ Parent ]
More revisionism (0.00 / 0)
I thought the "political radicalism of the late 60s" as embodied in the Civil Rights and anti-war movements split the democratic party base, which resulted in the Dixiecrats leaving and joining the republicans.

i don't know about you, but I look at the jettisoning of the Dixiecrats, and the accompanying "Southern Strategy" of Buchanan to woo them and get Nixon elected as not that bad of a thing for the democrats. The democrat party would be a far more conservative party than it is today if the Dixiecrats had stayed. And the Republican party would be much more liberal. Actually, NIxon signed some of the most progressive environmental and other legislation the country's ever seen: NEPA, the EPA and NOAA, OSHA, Endangered Species Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act, Clean Air Act amendments, Safe Drinking Water Act. Shall I go on?

But to ascribe some sort of causal effect with EF!'s rise with the coming of Reaganism and right wing extremism, if there is any, it is the other way around. The rise of Reagan, and the solidification of Dixiecrats into the republican party created an environment that fed the EF! movement. Heck, I don't if more than a handful of people knew about EF! in 1980. Certainly not enough to help elect Reagan.

And: "radicalism hasn't been all that successful."

Depends on how you define success. EF! wilderness activists define success by how long they can hold off the hard release of currently wild lands. And their predecessors define success by how they do things like defeat Jon Tester's Logging bill.

It is inevitable that we will lose wilderness to development. A principled activist defines success by forestalling that loss for as long as possible. Hopefully until the value of the land as wilderness outweighs current demands to convert wilderness to industrial uses.

Wilderness is a scare and limited resource. As the capitalist world expands and encroaches upon wilderness, it becomes more valuable, economically. But intrinsically, its value is already set in stone. And that intrinsic value far outweighs any economic value it may have. But mainstream economic thought will never enter that variable into the equation. Which is why we have radical activists who will.


[ Parent ]
No argument here... (0.00 / 0)
...about the Dixiecrats, but the South's blue collar workers weren't the only desertion from the Democratic party. And I do think that desertion allowed the left to move away from economic issues and towards things like environmentalism, which hurt the environmentalist movement. To me, bad stewardship of our natural spaces is a symptom of a bigger evil. It's telling that some of our worst environmental crises are happening to communities in poverty or minority communities.

[ Parent ]
earth first was a reaction to reaganism. i was there. it's why foreman did it. (0.00 / 0)
jc is right. you do have it backwards jay.

years in the trenches of the wilderness movement would have taught you that had you been there.

the one thing i cannot stand about you and matt is your arrogance when combined with your ignorance.


[ Parent ]
come on (0.00 / 0)
do better than that. a protest against Fred Phelps? Even the crazy right wingers think he's too far out there. Find me a successful protest campaign against an embedded corporate institution. Look how the protests against the WTO or G-7 are portrayed.

[ Parent ]
Earth First! wasn't founded (0.00 / 0)
to foster "environmental empathy." In fact "woo-woo" was something to be spurned as a wasted ethnocentric oddity. EF! was founded to further the principles of biodiversity, as were embattled in Wilderness loss and species extinction. Those are timeless principles in need of human voice to be heard.

But let me get this straight. Because there are, or may arise, radical right wing extremist reactionary groups, one should not take a principled stand in the name of WIlderness and biodiversity?

I'd call that notion ludicrous. And the historical revisionism laughable.

The roots for EF! were founded in the writings of people like Thoreau, Wendall Berry, Ed Abbey, Bill Devall and Rachel Carson, among many others. Are you willing to poo-poo their contributions to the growth of an environmental ethic? SImple nostalgic sentimentalism rising out of a time when the man/wilderness ration was much larger, and thus they could afford to write in a profligate manner? EF! explored and brought those writing to people searching for meaning and action in a world destined to implode by capitalism run amok.

There is much to be learned from the EF! experience that can be applied to today's political and policy environment. But you have to get out of the fishbowl to see it.


[ Parent ]
"fishbowl"? (0.00 / 0)
Cute. I'm well aware of the environmental ethic (and you forgot to mention Leopold) and Earth First!s place in it. I'm also well aware that the group contributed to the peeling off of working-class voters from the Democratic party in Western states.

Yes, biodiversity and species preservation are worth fighting for -- but, IMHO, it seems more constructive to pursue policies that actually preserve species and biodiversity rather than take action that turns people against your goals because of your methods. At some point, I think radicals put their own egos (suavely repackaged as "principle") over the movement.

I'm glad you mentioned Rachel Carson, because the campaign around "Silent Spring" is exactly the kind of successful populist political campaign I think we need -- and no one spiked a tree or burned down a building to make their point. One book -- "Silent Spring" -- did more for the environment than all the years of EF's activism.

I'm well aware of the environmental ethic. Wilderness has intrinsic value. But people also need to eat. The two are not mutually incompatible, but they've been portrayed as such and create conflict between environmentalists and rural populations, which EF! has exacerbated. Until we figure out how to replace extraction jobs with some other economy -- as Pat Williams has been trying to do by promoting a restoration economy -- I don't think we make much progress.

But, IMHO, blowing sh*t up isn't the answer.


[ Parent ]
You totally misunderstand the deep ecology movement (0.00 / 0)
EF! was never about the pursuit of policy through politics. It was about studying and debating the great writings (including Leopold, of course--but i said "among many others") and placing those ideas into practical action.

What you are getting confused is the actions you talk about: spiking and burning. EF! was all about non-violent civil disobedience. What you neglect to mention is the role of agents provocateur from the government, corporations, and right wing extremists to discredit the movement by infiltrating and derailing the movement. Actions of other organizations like ELF, ALF and the Sea Shephard were mistakenly ascribed to EF! in an attempt to discredit the movement.

Heck, there's even a staffer of a current US Senator here in Montana that had to go before a grand jury 20 years ago because actions of infiltrators were designed to crack apart the local EF!-based movement.

And what you miss, is the role that EF! played in educating and impassioning a new generation of environmental and social justice leaders. Hundreds of organizations around the country today, groups doing great work, owe their existence to their roots in EF! I'd list them, but suffice it to say that I know of at leas 7 or 8 commenters here at LitW who have strong EF! roots. At least 20 nonprofits in Montana are run by, or were established by,  people who grew up in EF! The legacy of the movement lives on in many ways.


[ Parent ]
Misunderstand? (0.00 / 0)
Maybe. And your arguments are persuasive. And then I read stuff like from Katie Lee, when she says, "I don't like the human race," and that kind of underlines my skepticism.  

[ Parent ]
Seriously? Now everything is the fault of Earth First!? (0.00 / 0)
Where are you going with this discussion Jay? I mean, you have provided some seriously revised history here in your creation of the ultimate Earth First! Strawman.  And now you're talking about "tree spiking, burning down building and blowing shit up" like this is the number one issue our country faces here in 2010?  Seriously Jay, when was the last time Montana saw a tree spiked or shit blown up by an EF!er?  (But hat tip to JC for pointing out that Tracy Stone Manning of Tester's office was part of the Missoula EF tree-spiking grand jury during the 1990s).

And if I'm to believe Jay, EF! and EF activists have never had any successes? Yep, Wilderness areas just got protected on their own during the 1980s and 90s.

Yep, ancient forest logging went out of fashion because those good-hearted, hard-working loggers just got sick of cutting down ancient forests?

Yep, EF! activists never did anything to raise public awareness of the threat posed by globalization and multinational corporations long before people heard of things like the WTO, IMF, World Bank.

Yep, even though I have the near complete achieve of the Earth First Journal in my basement, all those  1980s and 1990s era EF Journal articles of EF!ers working closely together with rural people, indigenous people or working people were just made up I guess.  I mean, perhaps Judy Beri wasn't a labor activist AND Earth First!er and perhaps she wasn't even bombed and killed twenty years ago.

A few other items that got under my skin:

"Until we figure out how to replace extraction jobs with some other economy -- as Pat Williams has been trying to do by promoting a restoration economy."

Hate to break it to you Jay, but the "restoration economy" was not Pat Williams idea. Enviros have been talking up this concept for a lot longer than Pat has. The real question is, where was Pat's restoration economy when he was actual member of the House of Representatives?

"And then I read stuff like from Katie Lee, when she says, "I don't like the human race," and that kind of underlines my skepticism."

Who the fork cares what Katie Lee thinks? And just how does one person's statement apply to an diverse movement of people? Because it sure seems to me like you are cherry-picking bits and pieces to make your point about the entire environmental movement.

"It's telling that some of our worst environmental crises are happening to communities in poverty or minority communities."

Yes, I agree Jay. And you know who else agrees? Earth First!. I mean, have you bothered to even be a regular reader of the EF! Journal over the past decade? If not, you should try and pick up some copies because I'm pretty certain what you will find is less and less about Wilderness, forests and critters and much more about the important issues of social justice, environmental justice, gender equality, etc.

Also, who are the people standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the rural communities of Appalachia as they deal with profoundly negative social, economic and environmental consequences of Mountain Top Removal coal mining?   Is it the DNC or other political leaders? Nope.  Oh, that's right it's Earth First! activists (including EF! co-founder Mike Roselle) who are the ones pounding the pavement, getting beat up, getting thrown in jail, lobbying members of Congress all try and bring to an end one of the worst on-going environmental and social tragedies in America.  Do me a favor Jay. Go to Coal River Valley in West Virginia and ask the local residents who are fighting MTR (some who's families have lived in those hills for 8 generations) if they believe that EF! and hard-core enviro activists are anti-people, anti-worker or anti-rural communities.

Perhaps if you'd actually take the time to talk with people who were involved in the early and mid-years of EF you might learn a thing or two. But then again, I've offered to sit down and talk with you about these issues and you've refused that offer, so who knows where you're getting some of your info.  


[ Parent ]
didn't mean to imply... (0.00 / 0)
that "everything" was Earth First!'s fault, just that radicalization isn't the answer as the "third way." Okay, I might be conflating ELF and EF! tactics -- thanks, no doubt, to conservative press -- but I do think we need a way to change the political situation, and I don't think civil disobedience is the way to do it...mostly because the press has learned how to deal with acts of protest. (Left protest = dirty hippies, right protest = America!)

[ Parent ]
michael moore would disagree.... (0.00 / 0)
http://www.michaelmoore.com/wo...

in fact, without non violent civil disobedience, this country would still be using slaves.

of course civil non violent disobedience is the way to do it- but first the people much be ready to act. we are not there yet.  


[ Parent ]
this isn't 1965 (0.00 / 0)
The media's grown a lot more sophisticated since 1965, and the right's done a fantastic job of injecting its rhetoric around protest into the popular zeitgeist. I don't "accept" the media label of left protesters = dirty hippies (you're putting words into my mouth), I'm telling you that's the reality of how left protests are portrayed.

I was in SF in the lead-up to the Iraq war and protested -- we got between 50,000 - 250,000 people into the streets at least once a week, and all we got on the news was a 15-second sound byte, usually from a Communist Party member or Maoist voiced-over a shot of someone naked or in a silly costume. Counter protests with 50 people got better coverage, and showed people talking about family members in the service or who died in 9/11 or whatever. And who can forget the famous "hippies in trees" protesting the removal of oaks on the UC Berkeley campus? Google "Earth First," and what's a top video return? The media can handle lefty disobedience with its eyes closed.

To me, that says we need different techniques to inserting ideas into the body politic. Frankly, Obama's campaign was a brilliant example of using a blend of technology, art, and grassroots organizing to run a winning national election on clear progressive policies: health-care reform, climate change, and against the Iraq war.

My question here was, how do we run a campaign or political movement to hold Obama to his promises and enact a slew of real progressive reforms without resorting to methods that disrupt left coalitions, alienate independents and liberal Republicans, and sometimes lead to violence?


[ Parent ]
as i said (0.00 / 0)
you don't run anything jay. the people do. they will let you know when they are ready. they are not ready yet. apparently bush wasn't enough of a beating for them yet.

[ Parent ]
acts of protest do work jay (0.00 / 0)
http://www.niot.org/niot-video...

the fact you accept this media label of protesters as dirty hippies says way too much about you jay.  


[ Parent ]
There are misanthropes out there (0.00 / 0)
But they only speak for themselves. But sometimes what they have to say is something that none of us want to hear: that the human race  is on an unsustainable race to destiny. And soft/corrupt politics is just greasing the way.

When I say get out of the fishbowl, I mean get out of the 21st century anthropocentric vision of the world. It's the only way to understand geologic and evolutionary forces. That's what EF! did, using the great environmental writings of the 19th and 20th century. And when you chart out the progression of the human species, and project it into the near future (like a century or so), the fate of the rest of the world isn't so pretty. Fortunately, geologic and evolutionary forces will roll right over whatever it is that the human race does to this planet. EF! just wants to preserve the maximal amount of biodiversity and wilderness before the system inevitably implodes.

It is an illusion that the human race can continue to grow in size and scope. At some point, either geologic, meteorlogic, or extinctive forces will cause great change. Or the human race will begin to downsize intentionally. Either way there will be massive upheaval to deal with.

We worry about little political battles in the short term, but the long term scenarios for our "civilization" are dire. That's why misanthropes like Katie Lee say the things that they do. And if we aren't willing to look at the consequences of politics without principle, the preservation of maximum genetic material and wild places for it to exist, then statements like "underlines my skepticism" become de rigueur. This argument isn't about Katie Lee, or any other one person or movement. It's about the future of life on this planet.

Speaking of which, nice chatting Jay. I'm off for a three day campout and hike in the wilderness myself. Cheers.


[ Parent ]
in the end, the earth will always win, geologically speaking of course (0.00 / 0)
the question is...will we be so stupid in pushing things to the edge that there will be no humans or higher life forms here to enjoy this ultimate victory over our ignorance.

"What's the best way to turn things around?" (0.00 / 0)
that ship has sailed. the democrat dominated congress has failed the american people who voted for real change.
we still flail about in iraq and afghanistan only now it seems to be even more directionless and pointless.

health insurers who were the main cancer in our nation's ailing health care system have been strengthened and given the green light to consume us with greed and rising profits at the expense of patients.

banks and the wealthy have been protected while workers and the unemployed are abandoned.

i guess the best way to turn things around are to make good on any more promises, because so far, the american people feel betrayed by their government.


there is really only one way to turn things around... (0.00 / 0)
it is not through our leader's cooperation or bipartisanship....

it is through the determination, the courage and the stubborn insistence of the people that anything momentous gets done in this country.

politicians will pay attention when the people are ready to lead them. until then, corporate money talks.

all the political strategy wonks in the world cannot begin a movement. they can only analyze it after the fact. (and even then badly)  


Okay... (0.00 / 0)
Those are great platitudes. So...how? What's the plan?

[ Parent ]
What? Socialist revolution? (0.00 / 0)
Is that your plan?

[ Parent ]
we may have a temporary setback in 2010 (0.00 / 0)
but i don't think it will be enough to lose the majority in either house. by 2012 i think some of the policies of obama will begin to bear fruit, shriveled and tasteless as they are- but enough to convince the people to give him another 4 years.

the plan is not to panic. take the media's cries of Armageddon for the democratic party with a grain of salt and continue to fight the right wing bastards. the plan is to man your guns and not jump overboard when the ship leans a little to the right.

this country will come around, just a lot slower than it should have if our leaders had seized a rare demographic opportunity.
so fine, we do it the slow, incremental painstaking way but we will come out of this with a much more progressive country in the end.

i still see this brief rise of the right as transitory in the grand sweep of history. a sort of last involuntary tail lash of a dying reptile.

the future is always toward progress. i just get really really frustrated with our leaders at times.....

the really important part of the plan is to not overreact. stay calm. and trust that the people will come around once they see how bankrupt the ideas of the party of no truly are. i guess bush wasn't enough.

humans!


[ Parent ]
Unless things change in the next two years (0.00 / 0)
I think you are wrong on both counts. I think that in the election coming this year, the Dem's stand to lose at least one of the houses and I think it unlikely that Obama will survive the next presidencial election. There was too much hype about "all he would accomplish" and too much "hope" that he had the ability to do it. That is backlashing against him as the recession gets worse and the oil continues to spill. Reasonable or not, many "hoped" Obama had the power to just wave his magic wand and fix everything and now they feel let down when it turns out he is just another guy. Therein lies the danger of putting someone up on some magic pedastal (Labeling it "hope" and "change"). When he falls off the pedastal, as anyone is bound to do, he instills the exact opposite of hope and change. The truly sad part, is the the office of the President is pretty limited when it comes to instituting the changes expected.. that is the purvew of Congress. In effect, Obama will be blamed for the inability of Congress to move forward.

Who will win in 2012 is still very much in the air. If Obama can be seen actually changing things around (not just sound bytes but actual change that the common people who voted for him can see), then he stands a chance. He also stands a chance if the Repubs can't find someone better than McCain to run against him. But make no mistake, if the disappointsments continue and the Repubs find themselves a decent candidate, Obama will not have a second term.

Moorcat


[ Parent ]
i feel the backlash from the right losing steam already (0.00 / 0)
i agree it looks pretty bleak in the short term but congressional races are very personality-driven plus i think many recumbent republicans will be equally if not more endangered than their democratic counterparts which should serve to dampen any republican gains.

i think it will surprise everyone just how level-headed the voters will be in 2012.  


[ Parent ]
Bro, I'm willing to take bets. (0.00 / 0)
I think it unlikely that Obama will survive the next presidential election.

Just to be pedantic, he will live on, even if he loses.  As for his keeping the White House, he will. What do the Republicans have to throw at him?

Mitt Romney.  That's it.  The only other possibilities are an avowed racist (Mike Huckabee) and ... Sarah Palin?  Multiple Choice Mitt stands no chance.  Don't discount how poorly Mormanism will be received, nor how much damage the Tea Party has already done to the Rep party. The Huckster?  No way he even gets the nomination. And Sarah, sweet Sarah.

Obama is President in 2013.  Bank on it.  The question is, what does he do with it?  I think you're wrong about the Republicants taking either house of Congress.  And the only one that any need concern themselves about is actually the aristocracy wing of the Legislature. That would be the Senate, of course.  


[ Parent ]
you may be right - (0.00 / 0)
as you often are, but I am not as convinced as you are. The high ideals that Obama was elected on are hard to sell when you are struggling to feed your family or keep the lights on. Nor was Obama elected with some kind of "overwhelming majority".

I don't know what the housing market is like in Bozeman right now, but here in Dillon, there are more houses for sale here than there are in Butte. People here are leaving (no jobs) and they are not sure where they will go. Watching the news (CNN, MSNBC and others), that situation seems to be common all over the country. The lack of extension in unemployment benefits has many families literally homeless and there doesn't seem to any light at the end of the tunnel.

Yes, I was refering to the Senate. I think it likely that the failure of the Government to actually live up to Obama's promises, coupled with the recession and the concern over how much money the government is spending will tip the balance over to the more "conservative" side and as much as you might not want to see it, many "tea party" candidates did surprisingly well. I may feel the Tea Party movement is rediculous and in some ways, silly, but it has reached a section of the population primed for a different kind of change.

As far as those the Republicans would challenge Obama with, you are probably correct (please let it not be that wingnut Palin). That assumes that some new sweetheart doesn't appear on the scene. Remember that Obama was kind of a nobody in the public eye till two years before the election.


[ Parent ]
i would rather have platitudes (0.00 / 0)
than policy-speak any day.

you cannot reinvigorate an alienated progressive base of the democratic party with policy. you need to show some gumption and stand up to the right with equal fury.

all this hand-wringing by you and matt is boring me and most of us activists to death.

if you want to see my plan.... watch me.  


[ Parent ]
This isn't a very high-minded contribution, but (0.00 / 0)
I think we need to work for the best solutions to our problems that we can realistically accomplish.  That means, I think, taking a less ambitious, less high- principled approach to political action.

At this point in our history, we need to do all we can to mitigate the effects of a right-wing surge which threatens to take us back to the 1950s.  That means working, I mean REALLY working, against people like Rehberg, who represents all the worst American values, and supporting people like McDonald, who doesn't.

We need to stop listening to smug and intellectually detached progressives who keep telling us, in effect, that there's not a dime's worth of difference between the parties. While the Democratic Party has been almost as corrupted by corporate interests as the Republican Party,  the difference is that Democrats, despite being compromised, will not lead us into fascism.  Republicans, I fear, will.

I guess I see the political world in almost Manichean terms.  The Republican Party, comprised of cynical, greedy corporatists and the ignorant white people they manipulate through distorting the truth, are almost purely evil.  The Democratic Party, comprised of sell-out politicians who've managed somehow to hold on to a grain of decency, racial minorities, and educated whites, is tainted but more good than bad.

That's why I'm a Democrat. I have few illusions about the party, but I know they're the best we can do right now.        


The Best Way? (0.00 / 0)

The best way to turn things around is to elect strong Republican majorities at all levels of government.

uh... (0.00 / 0)
Sorry, man. That's total disaster. War, deficit, corruption, torture, and the glimpse of a totalitarian state. Count me out.

[ Parent ]
Didn't we try that from 2004 to 2006 on the federal level, Eric? (0.00 / 0)
And how did that work out?

Maybe if only Bush and the GOP would have been able to privatize social security with all of Bush's 2004 election "mandate" and "capital?"  Damn, can you seriously imagine the deeper hole our country would be in right now if we would have done that? But I do like it when I can say I agree with Jay!  


[ Parent ]
It worked well - (0.00 / 0)

The economy was rolling, we had less than 3% unemployment in Montana, and the worst Federal deficit was around $200 billion dollars - a far cry from the trillion dollar deficits, 7% unemployment in Montana, (10%+ nationwide that we get from Reid/Pelosi/Obama regime.

Aren't you having major buyers remorse yet? Most Dems are less than enthralled with The Great Leader anymore, and wish that Hillary had been elected.


[ Parent ]
of course the car ran well before bush drove it into the ditch eric (0.00 / 0)
now that the frame has been twisted, the axles busted and the interior is full of pond water stench from your idiot president's joy ride, you complain that the ones who had to tow it out of the ditch haven't fixed it to your liking?

what is more. you right wingers think we are crazy enough to let you behind the wheel again after we get it barely moving again?

i do give you wing nuts excellent marks for having audacity though. and if it works, it would appear that humans are too stupid to live. just as we bears have suspected all along.


[ Parent ]
Bears - (0.00 / 0)

There's a lot of Bearskin rugs in Montana - LOL

Who's stupid?


[ Parent ]
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