| The upcoming budget battle for the state legislature has taken shape. The Montana Organizing Project sponsored a forum yesterday in the Missoula Public Library. Tara Veazey from the Montana Budget and Policy Center laid it out in stark terms. Basically, there is a $700 million dollar difference between what the Governor proposed and the Republican legislature plans to dispose. That is $700 million out of a $4 billion dollar budget for the biennium, or about 18% of the budget. The Gov proposes $3.94 billion, about $200 million over present expenditures and commitments. The GOP is proposing to start at 5% below the previous budget $3.28 billion. Those are huge differences, the battles will be tough and the stakes are high.
For most state agencies the Governor's budget is the high water mark. It's hard to imagine that the GOP will actually add much to any of the Gov's proposed numbers. They have about $200 million to work with to stay under the $3.58 billion legislative fiscal divisions revenue estimate, but there is also $240 million remaining from the previous fund balance. Look for the GOP to cut taxes with the business equipment tax at the top of the list. No, they won't find other revenue to make that up, instead they'll look to cut spending.
The Gov estimates $3.6 of revenue for the biennium. The Gov's budget is also woven together, so pull one thread and the whole thing comes apart. That thread is likely education funding or the transfer of $100 million from current state funds/reserves into the general fund.
Budget battles not withstanding the MOP forum was straight on in demonstrating that the central function of government is not to manage a budget. Government is supposed to provide services and as David Ewer, the Gov's Budget Director likes to say "Government medicates, educates and incarcerates". So most of he state budget goes to medicaid, CHIP, K-12 education, Higher ed, and prisons. Under the GOP plan, when we factor in tax cuts, state government will be providing a lot less in terms of services.
That means college students will be paying higher tuition, localities will have to raise property taxes to fund our schools and maintain their services, doctors and hospitals will have to charge more and cut services. The GOP would argue that cutting government services creates more jobs and stimulates the economy. Democrats argue that education is the "speartip" of the 21st century economy and that health care is a right, not a privilege. Of course, being a lefty and an educator I'm coming down with the latter. However, a large majority of conservative Montana voters came down with the former. The stakes are huge, because if those voters and the GOP are wrong, Montanans will suffer the consequences for decades. |
