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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

2014: Brian Schweitzer would "crush" Max Baucus in Democratic Primary

by: Bob Brigham

Wed Jul 06, 2011 at 09:35:01 AM MST


( - promoted by Rob Kailey)

Last month, David M. Drucker had a story in Roll Call looking at all of the talk of Governor Brian Schweitzer primarying Max Baucus in 2014 for the Democratic Party senate nomination.

Now, we have the first public poll numbers on how such a race would look. Public Policy Polling conducted a survey of 333 usual Democratic primary voters, with a 5.4% margin of error:

Looking way ahead to the 2014 election Brian Schweitzer would crush Max Baucus in a primary contest if Montana Democrats went to the polls today, 51-34. The general perception is that if this race happened Schweitzer would rely on support from the left to defeat Baucus for being too much of a centrist. That's not actually how the numbers play out though. Schweitzer leads across the ideological spectrum but his biggest advantage is with moderates at 28 points (55-27), followed by a 12 point advantage with 'somewhat liberal' ones at 50-38 and then 11 points leads with 'very liberal' (52-41) and 'somewhat conservative' (44-33) voters.

Schweitzer is also up double-digits over Baucus with women (48-36), even bigger with men (55-32).

Governor Schweitzer started his career in politics wanting to go to DC and serve in the senate. Here's his chance. Also, probably the best/only chance for Democrats to hold the seat as it makes sense for Democrats to vote against Max Baucus, as he does more destruction as Chair of Senate Finance then he adds benefit. Baucus needs to go.

UPDATE: From The Hill:

Franklin Hall, a senior adviser to Schweitzer posted the poll on his Facebook page and flagged it for friends on Facebook as "very interesting".

Very interesting indeed.

Bob Brigham :: 2014: Brian Schweitzer would "crush" Max Baucus in Democratic Primary
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Max should just retire (0.00 / 0)
He's been in DC far too long. And it shows.

TWITTER: @BobBrigham

I agree (0.00 / 0)
This is one race worth hitting with a strong primary, if we can get Schweitzer.  If anything, his chances in the general will be even better than Baucus's if he runs against Denny.  

Indeed (0.00 / 0)
I'd like to see some head-to-head numbers for the general.

I think this would be much like the Blanche Lincoln race in Arkansas, where if Dems aren't successful in removing the cancer in the primary, the rest of the state will oblige in the general.

TWITTER: @BobBrigham


[ Parent ]
Once people saw head to head numbers for the general (0.00 / 0)
for baucus vs a generic republican, there would be an even higher percentage for schweitzer.

[ Parent ]
yeah, this could be a far bigger blowout (0.00 / 0)
People aren't going to just talk about how much of a lead Schweitzer commands, but why. It's the analysis that will run up the numbers even more.

TWITTER: @BobBrigham

[ Parent ]
Correction, (0.00 / 0)
Schweitzer took on Sen. Corndog Buns for name recognition only.  And remarkably, he almost did the impossible and damn near won!  But I suspect the Brian knew that he wasn't going to defeat ol' Corndog Buns. But what BETTER way to get your name out there?  Schweitzer is nothing if not extremely politically savvy.  Nuthin' wrong with that.  It's a characteristic that MORE Dems and lefties need,no?

Schweitzer ? (0.00 / 0)

I'm not sure what the Dems are thinking, but what would it gain them to replace Max with Schweitzer ?

Schweitzer has not been a friend to the Dem base any more than Max has.


Wrong again, Eric (0.00 / 0)
All that shows is how little you understand the Montana Democratic base.

[ Parent ]
Agreed. A certain branding of TEA Party bills (0.00 / 0)
come to mind immediately.

[ Parent ]
OK (0.00 / 0)

I'll play along - exactly what policies of the Schweitzer administration has endeared him to the Dem Base?

The Dems (who Rob wants to think he understands, yet doesn't have a clue) are a splintered group of special interests around a table -

And I've watched Schweitzer irritate all of them at one time or another.

Have the environmentalists forgiven him yet for pushing coal?

Have the unions forgiven him for limiting state pay increases ?

Have the teachers forgiven him for caving in on their budget(s) ?

Have the militant gays gotten their special rights, or victim status from him ?

I can go through blog posts for the past six years, posts from liberals complaining about Schweitzer.

At least with Max you know what you're getting -

So please answer my question, what would it possibly gain the Dems to replace Max with BS?


[ Parent ]
here's one HUGE thing (0.00 / 0)
Max wouldn't be Chair of Finance. Hell, that's worth voting for a Republican to make it happen. But with Schweitzer, Dems get the seat, too.

Max needs to go if for no other reason that how bad he's been with his gavel.

TWITTER: @BobBrigham


[ Parent ]
"militant gays"? and their "special rights"? (0.00 / 0)
Geez, Eric.  That comment does NOT increase your  stature.  Any other great non-issues that you want to bat about in your  bigotry? Eric, not to shame you too much, but I always believed you to be better than that, better than most braindead wingers.  Is that really you writing, a bigot?  I might occassionally tease gays, but I'm NEVER a bigot towards them.  I think everyone is fair game for some goodnatured teasing, but not hatefilled bigotry.

[ Parent ]
Larry - (0.00 / 0)

That's not bigotry Larry - it's what their goal is -

almost every legislative session we see those bills introduced and crushed, and there has been no enthusiasm from Gov. Schweitzer to help them along. Yet they still have their seat at the Dem table, don't they ?

So when the Dems get giddy about replacing Max, I have to think what they would have to gain - which is nothing as far as I can tell.


[ Parent ]
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