| Here's a nice thing to wake up to: Rasmussen has Obama over McCain, 48-43 percent...in Montana!!
That's a ten-point swing since an April poll, which had McCain leading, 48-43 percent. According to the pollster, Obama leads McCain in under-30 voters by twenty-seven percent!
Folks from around the country are flabbergasted and trying to figure out how these results are possible. And to be honest, I'm a little surprised at the results, too.
The poll could be the result of the many appearances both Obama and Clinton have made in the state. (Obama! In Butte! For the Fourth of July!) It could be the result of the recent SCOTUS decision on the DC hand gun ban making the Second Amend less of a front-burner issue. It could be a positive backlash against the underhanded and vaguely racist attacks against the candidate. It could be the result of Obama rhetoric against the war -- after all, Montana has the largest percentage of its citizenry under arms, and a real problem with mental health care for returning veterans. It could be the result of Obama's primary talk against NAFTA and FISA -- and his moving to the "center" on these issues may endanger his lead here. Or Obama could be riding the coattails of Baucus - Schweitzer - Tester; here in Missoula, anyway, many of the same volunteers that swarmed Tester's campaign are working the doors and phones for Obama.
Or the poll could be an outlier.
If I were going to hazard a guess, I'd say all the candidate appearances during the primary had a real effect, especially on the reservations and among young people. Especially the young. Which is a good time to revive Bob Brown's Flathead Beacon editorial from May:
Obama is connecting with Montana young people, too. In mid-March I conducted a survey of 183 high school students, primarily graduating seniors, visiting their schools in Butte, Kalispell, Livingston, Whitefish, St. Ignatius and Townsend. While not particularly scientific, my survey revealed that a whopping 87 percent of the students, at least as of now, plan to vote in the November election. While that seems unlikely, the young people do rate voting as more important than helping collect food for poor people in their communities, donating blood, and assisting elementary students with reading.
If they were to vote today, those who have decided how to vote would decisively prefer McCain over Clinton by 58 to 25. They would, however, vote for Obama over McCain by a startling margin of 105 to 42. Seventy-eight of the students declared a preference for the Democratic Party, 75 for the Republicans and 30 had no party preference. McCain beat Clinton in Kalispell, Livingston, Townsend and Whitefish. Clinton prevailed over McCain in Butte, and they tied in St Ignatius. Obama overwhelmed McCain in all six locations.
After the high school surveys, I took in the Barack Obama performance on the University of Montana campus in Missoula on April 5, and had a first-hand experience with "Obamamania." The Illinois senator's charisma is powerful and captivating. The largely youthful crowd, estimated at over 8,000, left enthralled, energized and on fire for Obama. Fickle as the youth vote has been, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, I expect it will shatter the 50 pecent barrier this fall.
The implications of this could be significant in Montana where our people may be turning a political purple to match our mountains. A surge in the youth vote for Obama could make Montana a truly battleground state. Can the Democrats break the Republican presidential lock on the Treasure State? Maybe the kids will provide the key.
Indeed. |
