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Rob Kailey is a working schmuck with no ties or affiliations to any governmental or political organizations, save those of sympathy.

Obama Leads in Montana?

by: Matt Singer

Thu Oct 23, 2008 at 11:51:58 AM MST

The MSU-B poll is out and shows Obama leading McCain 44-40.

Wow, right. Well, hold your horses. This is good news, but a few observations:

  1. While the MSU-B poll has a good track record of predicting winners, its margins are off. In '06, it pegged Tester up by 11. I don't think Tester was ever leading Burns by 11. In '04, it once gave Schweitzer a double digit lead over Bob Brown. That also wasn't a double digit race.
  2. As in those races, part of the problem seems to be a high undecided rate. My guess is that if undecideds are pushed, they come home.
  3. Major caveat: MSU-B got the numbers wrong, but the outcomes right, in both '04 and '06. So maybe Obama really is up. Damn.

Update -- Complete release of the poll is here (PDF).

Matt Singer :: Obama Leads in Montana?
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Hopeful in Montana (0.00 / 0)
As a eastern Montana ranch girl I am proud of my state. I feel hopeful and optimistic about Obama's chances here, we gave both candidates a fair look and he is the right candidate for Montana.

Obama votes right on the farm bill, McCain voted against it. Obama is right to want to give middle class Montanans tax cuts, not big corporations and wealthy fat cats and he's right that we need to develop energy responsibly and break our addiction to foriegn oil.

I would really encourage everyone to get out and work for Obama, Governor Schweitzer, Steve Bullock, and local leg races in this last 12 days - knock on doors, make phone calls, remind your friends and family to vote, PLEASE PLEASE lets win this...we can't afford not to.  


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Purely Hypothetical, of course, but - The best candidate for the Republicans for US Senate is:
Corey Stapleton
Dennis Rehberg
Marc Racicot
Champ Edmunds
Steve Daines
Harris Himes
Kreyton Kerns


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