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Matt Singer works for Forward Montana. He also is a partner in DP Productions, a small, Montana-based T-Shirt company.


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Youth Paint the West Blue

by: Matt Singer

Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 12:02:59 PM MST


Four groups are the most responsible for Jon Tester's recent victory:
  1. Rural voters
  2. Indian country
  3. Butte/Anaconda
  4. Young voters
LaNette Diaz from Forward Montana and Stephen Fenberg of New Era Colorado make the case that young voters are making the difference for Democrats across the region:
While pundits debate whether the results are a long-term trend or a one-time fluke, the truth is that the West is turning blue because a new generation of voters are getting involved.

These voters—our generation—are repainting the West. And they’re painting it deep blue.

Montana: Young voters turned out in force, comprising 17 percent of the electorate—compared to just 13 percent nationwide—and broke for Senator-elect Jon Tester by 12 percent. In 2004, they made up more than one-fifth of the electorate and supported Brian Schweitzer by 11 percent.

Colorado: Colorado youth went for Kerry over Bush 51 to 47 percent in 2004. Young voters were also the best age group for Senator Ken Salazar, who first won election to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Exit polls are not available for 2006, but we can only guess that Governor-elect Bill Ritter and expanded Democratic majorities in the statehouse benefited from a growing youth vote.

Wyoming: Wyoming is blood red, but if young voters had their way, Democrat Gary Trauner would be representing the state in the U.S. Congress. Young voters went for Trauner by an astounding 16 percent.

Arizona: While losing the election by 15 percent, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson won young voters by 15 percent—outperforming his overall results by 30 points among young voters.

New Mexico: Governor Bill Richardson saw his strongest re-elect margins come from young voters.

Idaho: No exit polls in 2006, but all indications are that the state’s surprisingly strong Democratic showing in a governor’s race and U.S. House race—Idaho is even more Republican than Wyoming—came again from a groundswell of youth support.

They've also got a little advice for candidates looking to hold support from young Westerners. This isn't a fluke. It's a trend.
Matt Singer :: Youth Paint the West Blue
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Agree about the youth vote, but I have a question (4.00 / 2)
I've been out of town since the election, so I must have missed something.  I thought that Butte underperformed and that Gallatin County overperformed.  Gallatin is a Republican county that went 50% for Tester.  He only lost by 120 votes. Schweitzer lost by 2000 in 2004.  The story in Gallatin from what I can tell is the amazing volunteer apparatus that they have that never let up from 2004 on.  I was there election evening observing for Pacifica and they were able to answer all the questions that the students had about being told they couldn't vote. They had tons of runners and volunteers. So it was a combo of great old activists and new young voters. Quite inspiring.  The place was a buzz.  Very exciting. Then there was Livingston which rocked the night away with their victory and overperformance.  So I would add major grass roots organizing inspired by Howard Dean to that list.
 

Butte/Anaconda May Have Mildly Underperformed (4.00 / 1)
But their turnout and their huge D performance still delivered big-time.

In fairness, though, Gallatin won this for us in the same way rural Montana did -- not by actually going for Big Jon, but by turning away from Conrad in surprising numbers.


[ Parent ]
I'm interested in following this, so thanks (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
If Butte-Anaconda and Gallatin are on the list (0.00 / 0)
then most certainly Yellowstone County belongs there too.  They really stuck it to Conrad, don't you think?  In some pretty tough territory too.

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure... (4.00 / 1)
Butte didn't underperform to my knowledge - someone have hard numbers? - I think the final was Jon at 68.5%, and I believe 65% was the target.

Both Missoula and Gallatin overperformed in voter turnout, and in both of those counties Jon was able to beat Schweitzer's '04 numbers.  I think the youth vote there is the reason for that...that and the same day registration.

The coordinated did a stellar job turning out the early vote statewide - the staff was amazing, the plan was amazing.  Kudos to them.


[ Parent ]
My quick number crunching showed (0.00 / 0)
turnout a bit low in Butte. I have no doubt Butte came through for Jon. Those numbers may be from number crunching before that last batch came in, though.

And when I say that Butte underperformed, I don't mean it actually did. I thought Jon should have spent a bit more time in Silverbow myself.


[ Parent ]
Correction: Schweitzer lost by 2000 in 2000 (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Butte/Anaconda? (4.00 / 1)
I dunno - I had the distinct impression on election night that Missoula played a large part in the victory.

I Count Missoula as Being Part of the Youth Victory (4.00 / 1)
Young people turned out in force in Missoula -- I can phrase it differently, but it's a big part of Missoula's progressivism.

[ Parent ]
But I'd like to think of Missoula (0.00 / 0)
as integral...considering it's contribution to his primary win.  I mean, we were calling all over the state for the primary - out in Miles City, on the Crow Reservation - everywhere. 

[ Parent ]
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