Bill Kennedy drops out of the House race

by: Jay Stevens

Sat Nov 17, 2007 at 17:01:47 PM MST

...I have made the difficult decision today to withdraw from the race. I will not file paperwork to appear on the ballot next year, and I will no longer accept contributions.

"Recent health concerns have forced me to reconsider my decision to run for Congress. Further, I must put my family and service to the people of Yellowstone County first, and it is clear that I cannot run a full time campaign and devote the time and energy my family and constituents deserve.

I sure didn't see that coming.

Naturally this puts the House race into some disarray, but our first thoughts must go out to Bill Kennedy and his family, who are obviously dealing with some difficult times.

The New MSU-B Poll

by: Matt Singer

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 10:32:07 AM MST

All that said, none of these numbers strike me as on their face unlikely, but that may be because I like the low approval ratings for the war in Iraq or the high approval of Tester.

Anyways, my point is simply this: the MSU-B poll has correctly predicted outcomes in the past, but the margins have been completely out-of-line.

This will probably result in more push-back. That's fine. I just think that an honest discussion of where the numbers from '04 and '06 came from -- and "margin of error" doesn't cut it.

Still, if we take the numbers at face value, what does this tell us about the electoral safety of Dennis Rehberg, Max Baucus, and Brian Schweitzer? Well, long story short, Bill Kennedy, Mike Lange, and Roy Brown all have their work cut out for them -- big time. But bigger approval ratings have been cut down by effective criticism in the past.

So, take heart, partisans of both sides. While it isn't likely that any of these three will be unseated, there's a possibility with a campaign run well on issues that connect with Montanans. Others have pointed out that Mr. Rehberg just may be susceptible to some criticism for his staunch support of the President's war in Iraq. I think that's probably some good advice.

MSU poll: CHIP, delegates popular; Iraq, Bush unpopular

by: Jay Stevens

Fri Nov 16, 2007 at 07:24:04 AM MST

Baucus, a Democrat, received an approval rating of 64 percent, with the rest of those surveyed about equally split between disapproval and undecided. His approval rating in the same poll has swayed from 50 percent in 1994 to 68 percent in 1998.

Schweitzer, also a Democrat, received approval from 63 percent of those surveyed, while 18 percent disapproved and 19 percent were undecided. The governor, elected in 2004, had a 69 percent approval rating in 2005.

Rehberg, a Republican, was supported by 59 percent of respondents, with 17 percent disapproving and 24 percent undecided. His positive job approval rating is up from a low of about 49 percent in 2001 and 2005.

Tester, a Democrat elected last year, received the approval of 57 percent of those surveyed, while 16 percent disapproved. A larger portion, 27 percent, was undecided. It was the first time Montana State University Billings had asked the question about Tester.

There you go. No surprises, really, although I've been curious about Tester's numbers for awhile. This is the first approval poll taken after he's been in office long enough to have an effect on people's views; that 27 percent are undecided indicates there's still room to grow. And Tester's good approval ratings makes him seem a lot less of a vulnerable target, as people have claimed. I suspect his popularity will only increase as people get to know him.

And why not? He's a savvy, competent, genial, and honest representative. The likelihood of Jon getting wrapped up in a scandal - like, say, getting hinky with Abramoff boys - is practically nil.

On the flip side is Rehberg's 59 percent approval. I'm not going to lie: that's a big hurdle for Bill Kennedy to climb. Make no mistake, Bill's a great candidate, and if anyone can oust Dennis, it's Mr. K. But I think Kennedy's going to have to pin down Rehberg on some issues, get him to state where he actually stands. You have to admit, like with CHIP, Rehberg's good at taking multiple and opposing views on a number of issues. But, like Shane, I think Rehberg's record, especially on Iraq, is his weakpoint:

In support of number 3 above, consider the states support for the Iraq war:

The poll found that only 35 percent of Montanans surveyed now support the decision to go to war in Iraq. About 58 percent oppose that decision, up from 48 percent in both 2005 and 2006 in the same poll.

Let us all take this time to remember that Rehberg has voted in lockstep with Bush on this issue since day one. Also, consider that Bush had an 87% approval rating in 2001 but has slipped to 35% now. Can you say 'sinking ship'? Good. I knew you could.

Oh, one quick thought about the Good Guv: this is the first approval numbers I've seen since the much discussed and vitriolic 2007 legislative session, and Schweitzer's approval numbers seem virtually unchanged. Interesting...

The Fundraising Fight

by: Matt Singer

Mon Oct 22, 2007 at 13:50:00 PM MST

So it is probably time to compare the fundraising strength of the various committees. Dennis Rehberg is indeed raising money faster than Kennedy. Rehberg has raised a little over $400,000 this year. Kennedy has raised nearly $180,000. Kennedy's performance is neither stellar nor lackluster. We'll see what numbers goes up in Q4 before making a judgment.

On the Senate side, the numbers are starker. Max Baucus has raised $7.4 million. Mike Lange has raised $3,000, I think.

In the Governor's race, Schweitzer has raised nearly $800,000. He has no GOP competition.

The Democratic Party's Federal Account has $150,000 in cash on hand. The Republican's has a little over $37,000.

I'm not sure where the state accounts are at. But you look at all the money being raised and the Democrats over-all are beyond competitive.

Anyone have the numbers for the state parties or the legislative committees?

Is Rehberg Nervous?

by: Matt Singer

Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 12:26:14 PM MST

Two possibilities:

1. The Rehberg operation knows that 2008 could be as rough as 2006 and since Rehberg hasn't been tested since 2000, a serious challenger with deep roots in Montana's most populous county could be a real threat.


2. Dennis Rehberg is the biggest jerk in Montana politics and the Montana GOP proved with their death porn mailer during the legislative session that no blow is low enough at any point in the cycle.

There's plenty of evidence that Rehberg is the nastiest man in Montana politics.

There's also plenty of evidence that he's actually nervous. His caving on CHIP and college affordability are votes that simply weren't expected, come Hell or highwater. Good for him for voting right, but is it just because he's running scared for a change?

Krugman: "Conservatives Are Such Jokers"

by: Jay Stevens

Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 08:55:46 AM MST

In anticipation of the veto, William Kristol, the editor of The Weekly Standard, had this to say: "First of all, whenever I hear anything described as a heartless assault on our children, I tend to think it's a good idea. I'm happy that the president's willing to do something bad for the kids."

Heh-heh-heh.

Most conservatives are more careful than Mr. Kristol. They try to preserve the appearance that they really do care about those less fortunate than themselves. But the truth is that they aren't bothered by the fact that almost nine million children in America lack health insurance. They don't think it's a problem.

"I mean, people have access to health care in America," said Mr. Bush in July. "After all, you just go to an emergency room."

And on the day of the veto, Mr. Bush dismissed the whole issue of uninsured children as a media myth. Referring to Medicaid spending - which fails to reach many children - he declared that "when they say, well, poor children aren't being covered in America, if that's what you're hearing on your TV screens, I'm telling you there's $35.5 billion worth of reasons not to believe that."

The thing is, with Bush and Republican policies favoring the rich at the cost of the rest of us, more and more folks are feeling the pinch of rising health care and housing costs and stagnant wages, while shouldering a disproportionate share of the taxation burden. So GOP contempt is hitting a pretty broad swath of voters.

I'm with Krugman. I believe this contempt is genuine not feigned. And it would take an exceptional amount of empathy for someone like Bush - a pampered son of privilege and power who was given everything he's had in life - to feel anything but contempt for his economic and social "lessors." He's never had to choose between credit card payments and the mortgage, health insurance or  the heating bill.

Closer to home, it's telling that our state's contribution to the list of richest Congressional representatives, Dennis Rehberg, is dismissive of concerns for health care costs:

CALLER: We've talked a lot tonight about healthcare, and it seems like the government pretty selective about health care. I imagine you get government health care, too? Would you be willing to give up your government health care until the rest of us Americans can at least buy into the health care plan that you're allowed to have as a Congressman? Because I know it would help our business a lot, it would lower our costs.

REHBERG: I gotta tell ya, I've gone many years with minimal health care, and, frankly, while I don't find your question to be offensive, I pay for my health care, it comes out of my salary, I have Blue Cross/Blue Shield.

I always like it when someone calls and says, "you, Congressman, don't pay any Social Security!" Well, excuse me! Yes, we do. In 1984 they passed a law saying we're on Social Security like everyone else.

And so, I pay for my health care, like anyone else pays for their health care. I have Blue Cross/Blue Shield.

And you wonder why we're seeing difficulty in reforming our health care system?

Just another reason to elect Bill Kennedy...

Elect Bill Kennedy

by: Jay Stevens

Mon Sep 24, 2007 at 06:37:07 AM MST

There's Missoula's Iraq war referendum, which reminds us our city's contributed over $40 million in taxes to the Iraq, and that federal funding for affordable housing has been cut.

In fact, budget cuts across the board to Medicare, SCHIP, Department of Veteran Affairs, crime fighting programs, etc & co. will negatively impact Montana seniors, children, veterans, middle- and working-class families, and neighborhood safety, thanks to the administration's skewed spending - massive subsidies to the oil and gas industries, low tax rates for billionaire hedge fund managers, and Bush's quixotic quest for his legacy in Iraq.

And voting right along with Bush and against Montana every step of the way was, and is, our Representative, Dennis Rehberg.

Shane points out that Rehberg's talk on "free markets" is really cover for the handouts he gives to the richest among us. And let's not forget that, even as the Iraq war was raging and sucking up our federal, state, and local tax dollars, Rehberg advocated a personal tax cut. Ask yourself, who's going to pay the difference in Rehberg's tax return?

And who called funding CHIP - which would help tens of thousands of Montana children and seniors -- "extremist political ideology"?

Compare that to Bill Kennedy, who's constantly working at the local level as Yellowstone County Commissioner and should know, who said about Rehberg's CHIP vote that "in all my years advocating for children, families, seniors and the mentally ill, I have never seen so much disregard for the well-being of average Montanans." And this from a guy who's responsible for the ordinary, everyday needs of his constituents - like streets and roads, aid for seniors, firefighting, food banks, and law enforcement.

Kennedy's known to his constituents as someone who actually cares about them, which is reflected by the fact that he was reelected to his commission seat by a large margin - impressive for a Democrat, to say the least. Billings native, former educator, strong advocate of rural health care and mental health issues, Kennedy has got all the experience and tools to be a good representative for Montana.

This is the time to oust Dennis, folks. It's pretty obvious he's gearing up for a run against Tester in 2012. Better to get him out now. A 2008 loss for Dennis will pretty much ensure that we won't be hearing from him anytime soon. He can go back to his ranch and apply supply side economics to his goats. Maybe they'll be able to live off the scraps from his table.

All that's the long way of saying that Bill Kennedy needs your help. Donate on ActBlue. Kennedy needs money, early, to show the powers that be he's a serious candidate. The more we give now, the more it returns later.

So stop in, and give.

And - let's make a pact! Every time Rehberg says or does something stupid or heinous, let's all drop $10 into Kennedy's coffers. That should keep Kennedy flush...

Rehberg Releases National Republican Talking Points on Unsuspecting Montanans

by: Matt Singer

Fri Aug 17, 2007 at 13:22:36 PM MST

What Jay missed was that Rehberg's folks didn't think up this gambit on their own -- they got some help from their friends. And that's how health insurance for children moved from "extremist" to "[doing] wonders for kids."

Bill Scher has noted that the strategy of throwing kids under the bus for the express purpose of a hospital bed photo op seems to be Republican strategy across the country.

Rehberg doesn't miss any of the talking points, from "cuts essential Senior Health Insurance programs" (even the always-representing-their-members AARP calls this what it is, a load of crap, the cuts are to corporate health care companies, not to essential programs) to claiming that he supports expanding health insurance options for Montana children -- something clearly belied by his vote just weeks ago.

Rehberg's problem is that he really views all of this through a hardcore ideological lens -- no surprise given his own comfort as one of the U.S. House's richest members. He has no problem with tens of thousands of uninsured Montana children, because he knows his own daughter will never suffer that fate. We non-millionaires are not so lucky.

Anyways, as Scher notes the extent of the utterly insane lies flying out of the rightwing machine on this bill is just incomprehensible -- until you understand why they're fighting so hard.

CHIP expansion polls off-the-charts. When we were calling swing districts during the session on the issue, our callers were getting like a 9-to-1 positive response on the issue (and we were phoning all voters, not IDed Democrats or progressives). Being against health care for children ranks right up there with pooping on apple pie as positions a politician should never publicly espouse.

Bill Kennedy for Congress

Rehberg Outraises Kennedy...Barely; Kennedy Raises More From Individuals

by: Matt Singer

Mon Jul 16, 2007 at 16:13:01 PM MST

Here in Montana, Kennedy almost made the list of the 12. When the dust cleared, he raised $115,000 in his Congressional campaign. Incumbent Dennis Rehberg raised $120,000.

So here's a more interesting number. Rehberg raised $70,000 from individuals, and $50,000 from PACs and the Republican Party.

Kennedy, on the other hand, raised $109,000 from individuals and just the remainder from PACs.

More interesting news:

• While Senate numbers are harder to get, the numbers from the national party committees focused on electing Democrats and Republicans to the Senate show the Dems winning that money chase by more than 2-1, with the Dems raising $17.6m to the GOP's $8.6m over the past three months. The Dems have more than three times as much cash available to spend, once debt is taken into account. Ouch.


• Dem Presidential candidates are stomping when it comes to raising small-dollar donations. Barack Obama raised over $16m (more than the entire Republican field combined). Edwards brought in over $5m. McCain came in third, but he may not even survive the quarter. After that, it's Clinton, with nearly $4m.


• Speaking of Dems fundraising well, by the money primary, there are three tiers. The first tier is just Obama and Clinton. The second tier is Giuliani, Romney, Edwards, and Richardson. The third tier is everyone else.

Kennedy Raises Over $100k

by: Matt Singer

Fri Jul 13, 2007 at 09:24:28 AM MST

I love this:

[Rehberg spokesman Dustin] Frost said he didn't find Kennedy's initial fund-raising totals "that surprising."

If memory serves -- having trouble googling the articles -- Lindeen reported a little over $100k in September of the last cycle. Kennedy is raising at a faster clip earlier in the cycle.

He also just hired Cory Kalanick, a graduate of the New Organizing Institute and great hard-worker from Great Falls (Cory was one of the early helpers on the Tester campaign).

Kennedy's assembling a very solid team and building a real, homegrown finance operation. This is all very good to see.

More '08 Websites

by: Matt Singer

Mon May 14, 2007 at 09:41:52 AM MST

• Bill Kennedy -- running for Congress.


• Steve Bullock -- running for Attorney General. Mike Wheat, another AG contender, has his site up as well (check the right sidebar for campaign links). We're still waiting on John Parker's as far as I can tell.

A Few Things - Bill Kennedy Announces, Max Baucus Trounces, Bridge Access Bounces (Back)

by: Matt Singer

Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 12:16:41 PM MST

• Bill Kennedy is in. Good. I didn't support Kennedy in the '04 SOS Primary and I think he made some mistakes in the general. But from what I know of him, he's a smart and good man. The biggest concern about him that I hear is that he lacks the "edge" to take on someone like Rehberg, but since the biggest complaint I hear about Rehberg is that he is an *, we just might need a nice guy to beat him.


• Meanwhile, Max Baucus is close to the 60 votes he needs to get a Medicare Part D drug negotiation bill through the Senate. Why does he need 60 votes? Because Finance Committee ranking member Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) is threatening to filibuster (this is literally the kind of stuff Republicans filibuster -- low drug prices). Of course, now that he's near 60 votes, Republican Senator Olympia Snowe is saying that the bill doesn't go far enough. But rather than working to whip her fellow GOPers into, y'know, not supporting an * filibuster against senior citizens, she might try to amend the measure in such a way that it loses a few votes, lacks the support to overcome a filibuster and nothing happens. End result? Olympia runs back to Maine touting her moderate cred while drug companies probably send her fat checks for helping to scuttle a bill that would undermine their record profits. The long-term argument against Max's deal-cutting is that it treats these *es too well. The short-term argument is that they are such * that without some sort of deal-cutting, literally nothing would happen except the sucking of corporate * in Washington D.C.


• Similar stuff is happening back home where the Governor is forcing the Republican House to decide just how much they hate the idea of stream access. Brian used an amendatory veto to insert stream access language into a bill that has already passed. Still, the caucus that apparently cares for "nothing except permanent tax cuts" has apparently changed their position. They don't just want tax cuts for out-of-state landowners. They want exclusive fishing rights for them as well.

  They have a good point, too. These rich folks from out-of-state probably invested big time in pharmaceutical companies and their pay can't keep rising at 3 times the rate of inflation forever, can it? They'll hardly even be able to afford the property taxes on their 30,000 square foot summer homes soon.

  It's just not fair.



• Finally, U.S. Attorney William Mercer, the guy who (sorta) runs federal prosecutions in Montana, testified in a closed hearing about his role in the firings of multiple U.S. Attorneys around the country. Some of these other U.S. Attorneys were let go for failing to really be in charge of their offices. Of course, unlike Mercer, most of them were just U.S. Attorneys and, unlike Mercer, I don't think any of them ever got accused of failing to do their job adequately by a sitting federal judge in their district.

Good folks running this country. Yes sirree.

Murmurings in the Congressional Race

by: Matt Singer

Thu Mar 22, 2007 at 10:47:01 AM MST

So what's going on with the Congressional race here in Montana? Recently, I've been hearing three names over and over again:

• Bill Kennedy -- Bill is the lone Democratic County Commission in Yellowstone County. I'm hearing that he's definitely throwing his hat into this ring, but there's been no announcement, so take it with the same grain of salt that you take anything in the political rumor mill. That said, Bill brings some strengths to this race. He represents a swing county that is Dennis Rehberg's base. He lost the race for Secretary of State in 2004, but I hear he appreciates the reasons for that defeat and has vowed to not repeat the mistakes. If there are "factions" in the Democratic Party, Bill and I are from different ones. I worked for and supported Jon Ellingson for S.O.S. in 2004. Bill was John Morrison's primary treasurer in 2006, while I supported Jon Tester. All that said, Bill has always struck me as a genuinely nice guy and good human being. With the right kind of campaign, he could be a formidable opponent to a huckster like Rehberg.


• Jim Foley -- A former top aide to both Pat Williams and Max Baucus, Jim Foley has flirted with running for office for years. A recent Roll Call article said rumors were spreading that he was eyeing a race for Congress. Both the DCCC, which works on recruiting for these campaigns, and Jim himself refused to comment. That said, the story wouldn't have mentioned him if someone hadn't placed it and it wouldn't have been placed for no reason. He's probably feeling out the waters. His strength? A huge percentage of members of Congress are former staff people who understand the grueling work it takes to get there. His weakness? He's been based for years in Missoula, so he'll have to deal with the (often exaggerated) implications of being tied to the progressive hotbed of Montana, but he'll do it with few of the benefits. Jim himself is not beloved by the Missoula 'roots. Final Note: I don't have this on any authority, so don't quote me, but I'd guess Jim Foley would not jump into this race until after Rehberg explicitly says he's running for re-election. Jim knows the tougher race Rehberg expects, the more likely he is to jump into the Senate race. Jim is loyal and he wouldn't look to set up a tougher race for his former boss. Again, this is just my gut, so take it with a half a grain of salt.


• Dennis McDonald -- The current chair of the Democratic Party in Montana, Dennis may find his background as a rancher and relative political outsider comes in more useful as a candidate than as a behind-the-scenes manager. Dennis is a founder of R-CALF, has deep connections across rural Montana, and could undermine part of Dennis's base. He'd continue the successful formula that has worked for Montana Democrats -- run a rancher or farmer who is good on gun issues and can be forceful on trade, keep the base unified, and win. What's his biggest weakness? He's never been a candidate, much less a statewide one in a high-profile race. And he doesn't receive the natural political benefit of that, since as chair of a political party, he's relatively easy to paint as a typical insider.

All of these candidates, though, show the potential to be extremely hard-working candidates. That's a good thing.

The same Roll Call article that floated Jim Foley's name had some insiders saying Dennis Rehberg had the potential to rise a lot higher. I think that's overstated. I think Rehberg is tolerated by people who think he does OK work. He's not especially loved or respected by anyone in Montana. A hard-worker who is more likeable could do a lot against him.