Okay. Here's the rest of the races Mike Dennison mentioned in his report on the 10 races to watch on election day. These are the Republican-held seats that could flip Democratic.
SD 25 (north-central Billings): Easily the most-watched, most-expensive legislative race in the state, with Democratic Rep. Kendall Van Dyk mounting an aggressive, well-financed challenge to Republican Sen. Roy Brown, who's trying to win a second term. Van Dyk has unleashed a torrent of attack mail against Brown, labeling the former oil developer a tool of "big oil" and other business interests. Brown is striking back by casting Van Dyk, a staffer for Trout Unlimited, as an environmental ideologue bent on killing resource jobs.
If you haven't heard about this race, you're probably living under a rock, politically speaking. The most contested race of the 2010 election. And ugly, to boot.
In contrast, his opponent, the former oil executive Roy Brown was named by the League of Conservation Voters as one of the nation's "dirty dozen" state-level legislators, a dubious honor to say the least. And in a disturbing turn of events, the state senator recently abandoned his usual moderate stance on issues, and tacked hard right this election cycle, courting Nutcase Koopman and backing
the faulty lawsuit against the recent healthcare bill. And a quick swing through our archives will remind you of Brown's ill-fated and polarizing bid for governor in 2008, which he lost by 35 points and barely edged out a candidate who refused to run and endorsed his opponent, and a perennial parliamentarian candidate of dubious faculties.
It's easy to forget in all the Sturm und Drang surrounding this race that Kendall Van Dyk is the candidate that has an actual history of bipartisanship and compromise in passing legislation that benefits all Montanans, while Brown has steadily and noisily shifted to the right to consolidate his base and woo the Tea Party.
Van Dyk for SD 25.
HD24 (northeast Great Falls, Malmstrom Air Force Base): Republican state Rep. Brian Hoven, who won a close, surprise victory in 2008 in this district that leans Democratic, faces a challenge from well-known teacher and coach Gary Lucero, a Democrat.
This is what I wrote about Brian Hoven in 2008: "Brian Hoven is a businessman and the Chair of the Cascade Republican Party; he ran once for SD12, advocating for Great Fall's coal-burning plant. He wants to eliminate property taxes (d*mn the schools!), slash taxes for business, put a cap on medical lawsuits, favors prayer in school, school vouchers, and is pro-choice. The usual big business Republican." To be fair to Hoven, he was one of the few House Republicans to buck his party's leadership and supported the implementation of CHIP expansion in the last legislature.
Gary Luchero is a popular local middle-school teacher, running on a campaign as a pragmatic moderate. Check both candidates' positions in this Great Falls Tribune profile and KRTV interviews of the race.
HD47 (Billings Heights): Democrat Pam Ellis, a retired schoolteacher and principal, is trying to pick up this open seat held by a retiring Republican. Her opponent is Republican James Knox, a tea party favorite and operator of a computer business.
Ah...James Knox. You really have to sift through Cowgirl's archives to get the full effect of the man's...er..."abilities," from donning costumes, to spamming his candidacy in comment forums using anonymous accounts, from his irrational obsession with the Billings fire department, to his planting of hidden cameras in his yard signs, the man is a "shaky" candidate at best. And that's not even addressing his views, which are pure Tea Party.
Pam Ellis is a Billings native and a retired elementary school teacher with, naturally, a strong platform and promise to be an advocate of education. She's also a proponent of home energy efficiency, renewable energy, and a balanced budget.
Frankly, the choice is friggin' clear, even if you're a Republican. Ellis.
HD77 (Jefferson County): This largely rural district between Helena and Butte has long been held by Republicans, but Democrats hope Sheila Hogan of Clancy can put the now-open seat in their column. Hogan, who runs a job skills program in Helena, narrowly lost a race here four years ago to Rep. Scott Mendenhall, R-Clancy. Her opponent this time is bar owner Alan Hale of Basin.
Here's what I wrote about this race: "HD 77 stretches over much of Jefferson county, and includes a slice of Helena. Here, born-and-bred Butte-ian and miner's daughter, Sheila Hogan, is battling a "constitutional Republican" looking to hand over the keys of the state to multi-national extraction and energy corporations. Hogan is the executive director of the Career Training Institute, and a long-time advocate for jobs in the state, which makes her the ideal candidate in this economic slump marred by joblessness." Hogan!
Check out the the HD 77 profile in the Helena IR, and the interviews with the candidates by KXLH.
HD100 (west Missoula County): Democrat Willis Curdy, a retired teacher and former smokejumper who lost narrowly in this district two years ago, is running again, this time for an open seat. Banker Champ Edmunds is trying to keep the seat Republican.
Willis Curdy was the last-minute replacement candidate (for the stricken Democratic primary winner) to tackle Bill Nooney in Missoula's sole GOP-controlled House district, HD100. This time around he's not only had time to prepare for the election, he's battling for an open seat after Nooney's withdrawal from public service.
Curdy's a fave of the b'birders - a "4th generation Montanan, small business owner, retired high school teacher and retired smokejumper." (I wonder what was harder, the parachuting into wildfires or managing teenagers...) He's running to protect public lands and on a platform of job creation. Edmunds, a banker and Navy vet, just isn't up to snuff.
I'm not a huge fan of engaging in stupid campaign trash talk and "gotcha" moments...except, well, I saw this letter from Gary Marbut in the Missoula Independent:
Texas legislator Dr. Suzanne Gratia-Hupp said, "How a politician stands on the Second Amendment tells you how he or she views you as an individual...as a trustworthy and productive citizen, or as part of an unruly crowd that needs to be lorded over, controlled, supervised, and taken care of."
Every election cycle we see candidates with marginal commitment to gun owners doing a masquerade intended to deceive voters....
Don't get sucked in by the photo op candidates who borrow a shotgun for a campaign photo. In Montana we call that "All hat and no cows." Check candidates out carefully or trust MSSA and the NRA to have done a good job evaluating candidates for you. As Dr. Gratia-Hupp implies, a candidate's true attitude about your gun rights is a litmus for much else about that candidate.
The letter's a swipe at progressive gun rights groups that identify access to wilderness as a gun issue - something Marbut and the NRA don't care much about because...well...because those groups aren't Republican. Whatever. We'll get back to that. But this letter immediately made me think of this:
At first glance it's simply a campaign photo of Roy in hunting garb, holding some dead geese. The impression we are supposed to get is that Roy is a sportsman, a big bird-hunter, who will defend the rights of other sportsmen, by wearing his camouflage, his boots and his dorky looking outfit. The photo is now on his state campaign website, where he uses it to imply his "conservative" hunting and gun and outdoor credentials....
But alas for poor Roy, there is an unfortunate fact that has been revealed: Roy never hunted in Montana in recorded history (as far back as hunting license information is obtainable, which is to 1989) until 2006 when, coincidentally, he began preparing for his Governor's run and also faced a rare Senate challenge, from Margie McDonald who had big Dem support.
Now, frankly, I don't give a rat's *ss whether Roy Brown hunts or not, and I'm not getting all light-headed mulling over Kendall Van Dyk's upcoming You Tube video of him gutting and skinning an elk. Yes, I realize that a candidate hunts shows an appreciation for Montana wilderness, etc & co, tho' I think an avid hiker or rock climber or angler would feel much the same way. And doesn't everyone in Montana have a relationship to wilderness in one way or another? I mean, you have to if you life in the state.
But Gary Marbut cares! So, we'd expect him to endorse, not Roy Brown, the borrower of shotguns for photo-ops, but the guy who actually uses firearms, right? You'd be wrong! Marbut endorses the poseur over the hunter.
Why? Because Roy Brown is a Republican, and the Montana Shooting Sports Association, like the NRA is essentially a Republican PAC.
Don't believe me? Consider the NRA 2006 endorsing and fundraising on behalf of Conrad Burns. That was despite Tester's perfect record on the Second Amendment and his support of hunter-friendly conservation issues and opposition to the Patriot Act, unlike the Missouri auctioneer. Tester was clearly more in alignment with the NRA than Burns.
The Montana Hunters and Anglers PAC is apparently running a new TV ad in the race between Kendall Van Dyk and Roy Brown, using the increasingly infamous clip of Roy Brown talking about his friendly representation of insurance companies:
Senator Roy Brown has been called out by the national League of Conservation Voters as one of their state office "dirty dozen" -- the organization's highest dishonor.
Why did Roy Brown get called out? He opposed the state's renewable energy standard. He fought for a tax holiday for oil and gas companies, profiting out-of-state corporations while shifting taxes on to Montana homeowners.
Roy's opponent, state Rep. Kendall Van Dyk, will take a notably different approach on this front. Kendall is a lifelong conservationist, a farm kid, a dedicated sportsman, and one of the hardest workers in Montana politics.
A number of folks have emailed me of late asking for advice on where to throw a little spare change in Montana. There are lots of great candidates, but Roy Brown is raising a hell of a lot of money off oil industry interests and his fundraising network from his Governor's race. Kendall needs all the help he can get. Contribute to Kendall today!
Wowza -- the race between Kendall Van Dyk and Roy Brown is on track to be damn expensive.
Kendall is well on track to shatter records...except that Brown is shattering them even faster. Kendall already raised nearly $70,000. Brown already raised nearly $80,000.
Good news for progressives is that this race won't just be about money. Bad news is that we still gotta keep our guy competitive.
This will probably become a frequent plug on Left in the West, but if you have a chance, kick in another $25 on ActBlue to Kendall's campaign. He's got 133 supporters on ActBlue right now. I think we can bump that number up to 150 by the time the polls close tomorrow night.
Senator Roy Brown has held on to his Democratic-lean seats in the House and Senate by portraying himself as something of a moderate. His voting record belies this claim over the years. During his days in the House, for example, Roy Brown was one of 22 Representatives who supported issuing Minor in Possession citations to young women reporting sexual assaults. If there's an epitome of "punish the slut" thinking about female sexuality, that vote would have to be it.
But Roy has maintained a moderate tone over the years. This cycle, though, he's apparently spooked, because he is falling all over himself to appeal to the most reactionary elements of the Republican Party. Roy Brown actually returned the Koopman Konservative Kwestionnaire (too far?) and earned a score of 82 -- pretty much off the charts.
Let's be clear, Koopman isn't just a conservative. He's a nutjob that conservatives make pains to distance themselves from. I just heard from a friend that she saw Scott Mendenhall, no liberal himself, and two other GOPers in a Helena coffeeshop loudly mocking Roger Koopman.
Roy Brown, though? He's responding to questionnaires and bending over backwards to get a good score from Koopdog.
Brown's district is, was, and will be a lean Democratic seat. It may be the most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican in Montana. Catering to the far right isn't just bad policy here, it is terrible politics.
Roy Brown should probably not be calling Kendall Van Dyk silly nicknames, given his vulnerability on a certain embarrassing issue that arose in his 2008 run against Schweitzer that could lead to a few nicknames of his own, such as Olive Oil Roy or Broccoli Brown.
When we talk about "Red Meat" in politics, the expression refers to a politician's support for an issue that his ravenous partisan voters crave: "red meat for the base" is an expression you might hear used to describe Denny Rehberg making a pro-Pharma vote, or Schweitzer supporting universal healthcare.
But in Roy Brown's case, the red meat is anything but red meat. It's tempting to dismiss the "Brown is a Vegetarian" press from 2008 as a bunch of silliness, but behind the silliness there is an interesting political question as to whether ranchers, and those who make money in the ranching economy, would base their votes on whether a candidate eats meat or not. Roy got less than a third of the vote against Schweitzer. Did the story about him being a vegetarian (or is he vegan?) have any effect on the outcome of the race, because it hindered his ability to shore up his base vote. The GOP base is a meat-eating lot, and one of the stereotypes Republicans love to play up is the image of Democrats as hippy, vegan, fruit-and-nut-eating liberal voters from Missoula. So when a conservative standard-bearer has to fight to clear his name of the outrageous, unthinkable assertion that he is a vegetarian, it's likely that you haven't heard the end of it.
To recap what happened, Montanans awoke in the fall of 2008 to one of the most amusing declarations in Montana political history: Brown: "I am not, nor have I ever been, a vegetarian", Brown in a Billings Gazette article said it was an outrageous lie.
A neighbor of the Browns said she was invited to their house for dinner and was informed that Brown and his wife were vegetarians. She wrote an email to a few ranchers asking if they would oppose a candidate on such grounds, the email got around, and Brown sent out a press release strenuously denying the outrageous rumor.
Or sort of.
He said he "was not, nor had he ever been" a vegetarian. But then he said that he had been a vegetarian, but only for a year and as a show of support for an ill family member who couldn't eat meat. Then, in a little-noticed paragraph of a profile-piece on Brown a few weeks after that, a family member was quoted as saying that he is practically "a vegetarian." The link has expired but I've posted the story in the comments so you can see the source. And then there was the pathetic photo Roy posted of himself, on his campaign website, sitting in front of a big plate of steak. Publicitiy stunts are certainly not Roy's thing.
Stay tuned to the Billings senate race, to see if beef is what's for dinner in the Van Dyk/Brown face-off.
Imagine this - you're been an elected politician for over a decade. You get a call from a reporter who is writing his first story about your current campaign. Do you, (a.) talk a little bit about what you've done for the folks you represent; or (b.) do you revert back to negative tactics you've used in your most recent campaign (a campaign that set records for ineptitude and failure)?
If your answer is (b.), don't be surprised if voters start asking, "What the heck has that guy been doing?" And saying, "Maybe it's time for him to get out of the way."
The Gazette's Tom Lutey has some early coverage of what is shaping up to be the premier legislative race this election cycle - the battle between Kendall Van Dyk and Roy Brown in Billings' State Senate District 25.
While Van Dyk talks about his accomplishments in three short years...
Van Dyk likes his chances of appealing to moderates. In his last legislative session, he crafted a bipartisan bill to settle the disputes over stream access between property owners and river users. It was the first stream access bill to pass through the Legislature in 25 years. He also won bipartisan support for a bill to grant certain therapies for autistic children.
Roy Brown jumps to the low road (and doesn't mention one, single thing that he's done)...
Brown is getting the jump on nicknames.
"I'm not afraid of Tax Hike Van Dyk," he said.
Many Republicans I know (the smart class that have run and won statewide elections) were embarrassed by the campaign that Roy ran last year for Governor (and not just because he lost 50+ counties and ran even with Bob Kelleher.) They're embarrassed because his campaign lacked any substance, blamed everyone else but himself for his problems and went on silly attack threads that showed him to be weak.
First off, for the legislature, 4&20 blackbirds is the place you want to be. Jhwygirl's been doing a swell job covering the doings in Helena -- yesterday she posted the hearings scheduled for this week.
Kendall Van Dyk's stream access bill made it out of committee, while its idiot stepsister version of the bill, sponsored by Ken Patterson, looks to have died. Jhwygirl's optimistic about HB190 -- and I think she should be...for the House vote. We'll see what happens to it in the Senate, where it would need Republican support.
Krayton Kerns' new gun bill -- HB228 -- is an odd duck to say the least. It appeared among some other bills that clarified Montana's castle doctrine, sponsored by Larry Jent and Kendall Van Dyk, which appear to have the support of...well...everybody.
Not so much Kerns' bill. In its original incarnation, it included a provision that said employees "have a right to carry a gun to their workplace." If the employer bans firearms, the employer "must provide similar protection to the employee" that a gun-packin' employee would have. Or something. Naturally the Montana CoC objected -- the idea of the Krayton Kerns of the world bringing heat to their offices no doubt put a few white hairs on employers, not to mention the law is a clear effort to put the power of the government over private property holders and business owners. (Why is it that some conservatives are so eager to use the power of government to force people to adhere to their ow, personal beliefs?)
You know the rest of the story. When the CoC says, "jump," a Republican's response is, "how high?" News came that the bring-your-gun-to-work provision would be removed at hearing that same day. Still, the bill would dictate to landlords and hotel owners that they don't have a right to make rules for tenant on their property. And it includes the right for citizens to use "reasonable force" to make a citizen's arrest -- which, I assume, means they can use a gun. Which sounds sketchy to me. On the other hand, if it passes, Dick Cheney better not show his face around Montana, eh?
Hearing is tomorrow on Kerns' bill. I'm curious to see who testifies.
John Adams has a blog! It's awesome. A couple of days ago, he ably summed up the dueling bills circulating in Helena surrounding medicinal marijuana, the worst of which is Verdell Jackson's SB212, which essentially singles out registered marijuana users for mandatory extra scrutiny if they're involved in a traffic accident or traffic stop. Which, if you think about it for like 30 seconds, seems like a terrible idea. Make it mandatory to give a guy a blood test if he's caught going 40 in a 35mph zone? Police officers are already empowered to take extra action if they think a driver is impaired: why do we need this bill, other than to terrorize registered marijuana users? Answer: we don't.
Can somebody explain the argument against medical marijuana? It seems illogical to condone the use of prescription pharmaceuticals--many of which are psychoactive and can cause serious and often life-threatening side effects--and at the same time be opposed to medical marijuana.
And finally, Dave Wanzenreid introduced SB 236, which would abolish the death penalty in Montana. In 2007, a death penalty ban passed the Senate with bipartisan support, but was quashed in the House. This year, the proposed ban hasn't made much of a splash in the media, despite being supported by the Montana Association of Churches.
The death penalty played an interesting role in the Democratic primary for state attorney general, but it seemed to have fallen off the map since then...
Kendall Van Dyk recently filed a complaint against a hundred-dollar donation to Republican gubernatorial candidate, Roy Brown. Apparently radio personality, Dave Berg, donated the money under his stage name - his real name is David Fulwiler. The real news here isn't the contribution given under a false name - it's that Dave Berg supports Roy Brown.
Dave Berg is the worst kind of radical conservative hate monger there is. Anybody associated with this joker should be wary. If I were Brown, I'd give that money straight back to Berg. Remember, this is the guy who compared state House Democrats' HB 179 - the Montana Military Relief Fund - which would have provided families of soldiers deployed to Iraq with some financial assistance, to money given to the families of Islamic suicide bombers:
"Do you know what it sounds like? This, this is a horrible, horrible thought, but I'll tell you what it sounds like. Remember when Saddam Hussein said that he would pay twenty-five thousand dollars to, uh, every martyr, everybody that would strap a bomb on and blow them selves up. It is horrible and it's a real stretch to get to that point, but it does hurt me."
Classy. With supporters like these, who needs enemies?
The funniest quote of the report:
Berg said it is common in the radio and entertainment business for participants to use a simpler name in place of their given names. For example, he asked how many people know that Leonard Sly and Marion Morrison were the given names of Roy Rogers and John Wayne respectively.
Yes! Dave Berg! Just like Roy Rogers and John Wayne!
But, more appropriately, how many people know that Mildred Elizabeth Sisk and Iva Toguri D'Aquino were the given names of Axis Sally and Tokyo Rose, respectively?
Really, Dave Berg/Fulwiler needs a new nickname, don't you think? Something more befitting the man's contribution to society. "Pasadena Sally," say, in honor of his California roots?
Update (by Matt) -- Call me crazy, but wouldn't Occam's Razor tell us that it's just possible that Dave changed his name less because his own name reminded him of 'Marion' and more because it gives away that he was a bigamist?
It's official: Kendall Van Dyk will not be gunning for Montana's sole House seat.
Van Dyk said he is supporting former lawmaker and current Fish, Wildlife and Parks Commission chairman Steve Doherty. Doherty did not immediately return a call seeking comment on whether he will run.
Update (by Matt): That quote clearly reads like Kendall knows that Doherty is inching closer to getting in. This is probably a solid decision. Kendall picked up a formerly Republican House seat (Roy Brown's old seat) just last cycle. He's got a solid record of advocacy with Northern Plains and Trout Unlimited.
All that said, floating his name, establishing himself as someone with an eye on higher office, and stepping aside and helping the more established candidate all looks like a very smooth move for a young politico.
Sorry for the unannounced absence. I went on vacation -- was in an undisclosed locale with temperatures over 90. Coming back to Missoula was a bit of a surprise -- but it is great to see snow.
Interesting stuff happening here. Like many others, I was sorry to hear about Bill Kennedy's apparent health troubles. I don't know anything more than what I've read -- and that includes for potential new candidates in that race. I don't even know if the candidates being talked about are seriously considering it. So no real news on that front.
But there's something else going on in Montana politics that seems worth discussing. That's the GOP caucuses. So far they haven't been getting much mention. That's too bad.
That said, I was talking to a Republican today who is eligible to caucus who said she got an ID phone call from the Romney campaign (she's not a Romney supporter). She also indicated that in her neck of the woods, Ron Paul supporters are lining up to fill empty seats on the central committee and be able to caucus for their guy.
Now, I have no idea how many vacancies GOP central committees had statewide prior to this process. I do know that one of the big strengths of the caucus process was the likelihood of campaigns doing a lot of the legwork to build GOP grassroots in Montana.
So here's the question: is anyone other than Romney and Paul working in Montana (noting that Steve Daines is apparently helping Huckabee, for what that's worth)?
And is anyone other than Ron Paul supporters lining up to join central committees?
And, can Ron Paul supporters gain sufficient numbers to be a real force in the caucus?
And, will Ron Paul supporters stick around in the GOP even if/when their candidate loses?
Dean's grassroots operation from 2004 embedded itself pretty firmly inside the Democratic and progressive establishments. A lot of my cohorts from back in the day are now working at the DNC for the big candidates or whatever. Others, like me, went into the less partisan, but still ideological, world.
The question is what Paul's supporters will do after this. Stay in the GOP? Move to the Libertarian Party? Start a significant national PAC a la Democracy for America to impact conservatism in general?
It's official! Kendall Van Dyk is "seriously considering a run" against Dennis Rehberg for Montana's sole House of Representatives' seat:
Democratic Montana Representative Kendall Van Dyk of Billings says he is a possible candidate and says he's seriously considering a run against incumbent Republican Representative Denny Rehberg in next year's election.
Van Dyk, 27, says he plans to make a decision within the next two weeks.
Dave Wazenried and Steve Doherty are mentioned as possible candidates, too.
Rep. Kendall Van Dyk recently lobbed a bomb at the Montana Stockgrowers Association, laying out a strong case that the Association is out of touch with its membership. While farm country confronts the realities of the WTO trade agenda, MSGA, for example, worked hard to block Sen. Jim Elliott's resolution opposing the reauthorization of fast track.
I'm curious to hear some of the state's ranch/blog community jump in to this discussion, but I'll say this, while Errol Rice of the Stockgrowers responds, claiming to offer "clarity," he actually fails to respond to a few of Kendall's arguments -- and he just outright fails to note a few other substantive criticisms that are certainly floating in the ether -- most notably that the MSGA was invited to discussions about resolving the bridge access issue, but refrained from joining negotiations, and then later called for legislation to be killed based on their own voluntary exclusion.
The MSGA does have some explaining to do. Fortunately, Montana is one of those bizarre states where legislators, often being more part-time than the lobbyists who harangue them, are actually suited to call to account the other folks in Helena who claim to represent people back home.
Kendall Van Dyk's op-ed lays out the issue pretty well. Humorously, a few of the commenters try to go after enviros who "lock up" public lands. Here's the key thing -- the GOP wants to lock you out; enviros might want to keep motor vehicles out of pristine wilderness and they don't want to drill everywhere in sight, but I don't know any environmentalist who thinks that people shouldn't be able to go into public lands and streams. I'm sure they're out there, but I also can positively guarantee that Kendall ain't one of 'em.
