A campaign that is now on course to be down by more than 100 pledged delegates in two weeks didn't "tie." Just like Mitt Romney, any campaign that is talking about changing delegate allocation rules didn't "tie." A campaign that is plugging its website to try and raise money didn't "tie." A campaign that talks about stopping the momentum currently enjoyed by its opponent didn't "tie." That is a campaign back on its heels. As I wrote last night, this was not a tie, and Obama clearly has the edge.
Looks like we're where we started in the Democratic primary: a deadlock between Clinton and Obama. The pundits say that's to Obama's advantage in the end. Then again, there are those pesky superdelegates.
As for the GOP side of things, McCain won the big states and most of the delegates, but with a pesky Huckabee nipping at his heels in the South. I can't say the same for Romney, he won his two "home" states (UT and MA), two little states (MT and ND), and Minnesota.
This thing will drag on a little while longer for the Republicans...but the outlook favors McCain right now...
With one county left, I reiterate: I call Montana for Mitt Romney!
9:11 pm
Can I project the Montana caucus outcome? There are still three counties to report -- Missoula, Flathead, Ravalli, and Lewis and Clark -- but Romney has a pretty big lead at 37 percent over Paul (22%) and McCain (23%).
Wonder how the WVA convention works? The shorter version, from Romney advisor, John McCutcheon: "This has been the slow drill school of dentistry." Ouch.
* * *
The dueling polls for the California Democratic primary:
SurveyUSA predicts Clinton upends Obama, 52 to 42 percent. Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby predicts Obama-rama in California, 49 to 36 percent.
Josh Marshall: "There's one guarantee I can make right now about tonight's results. They are going take make either Zogby or SurveyUSA look like complete fools."
* * *
Here's a glimpse at the controversy that might be the story about the Democratic nomination: the superdelegates may decide who gets to run for president as the party's nominee. Superdelegates are those Democratic insiders who get to cast their vote - disproportionately - for the nominee; they're the party's insurance against the voters having the final say on the party's nominee:
There are about 800 of them, and that's a lot when you can win the nomination with only about 2,000 delegates. Hence the controversy. Even though Barack Obama is winning more delegates in actual primaries and caucuses, Hillary Clinton is substantially ahead of him in the overall delegate count because many more superdelegates say they will vote for her.
Maybe that shouldn't matter. Both candidates knew the rules when they started. If she's better at securing these delegates, good for her, too bad for him.
But that argument may clatter like a counterfeit quarter with the general public if this race continues neck-and-neck down to the convention, if the Democratic nominee is not selected by a sea of Americans voters, but instead is anointed by party leaders.
I like this idea about as much as I like the electoral college. Once again, another system made to keep the common man from harming himself and being sure that we don't become 'too democratic'.
Thus far, Obama has won 63 pledged delegates to Clinton's 48, but Clinton leads in overall delegates, 241-169, thanks to her 193-106 edge in superdelegates.
Don't forget: if you're looking for a place to hang out in Missoula this Super Tuesday, come on down to the Badlander, where Forward Montana is hosting Super Fat Tuesday! (Costumes welcome.) Results start rolling in at 5pm...as should you!
In Helena, state Atty Gen'l candidate, Steve Bullock, is hosting a Super Tuesday fundraiser at Bleachers - 361 N. Last Chance Gulch - at 6 pm. So if you're in that neck of the woods, give Bullock's party a visit.
(If you know of any other Super Tuesday party happening, drop me a line or leave a comment, and I'll update the blog throughout the day...)
