A couple of brilliant in-depth analyses came out in the past couple of days, examining why Democrats are threatening to retake the Rocky Mountain West from the herefore tenacious grip of the Republican party.
That said, there are some things happening out here that really should be recognized by the national party as it considers building on what is bound to be an extremely successful election year. That's because there are some long-term shifts that a few smart politicians--Brian Schweitzer and Jon Tester, to name two--grasped early on and have been building upon. That kind of forward thinking will be key to building our majority down the line and gaining and holding the White House. The 2008 national mood, I'd argue, is still throw the bums out--gains made by Democrats this cycle are going to come as a result of us not being them. While the promises of "change" are compelling, for any gains made in 2008 to hold and increase in 2010, 2012 and beyond, there has to be some delivery in the next two years.
There are two highly connected issues that top what Westerners are concerned about leading into 2008--Iraq and the economy....What voters are figuring out in the West is that the economy sucks largely because of the war, and we're in this war largely because of oil. It's not a situation they are particularly happy about.
Right now we are fighting hard for stream access. In a couple of years it might not be so important. The days of trout in Montana are numbered.
Since moving to Montana, I have experienced only one winter that was close to what is refered to as "average". I love trout more than just about anything (hence my handle) and I depend on the "average" winter for there to be good fishing through the summer.
I now tell people if they want to come visit Montana to fish, they should come no later than early July. That's because every spring since I have lived here snowmelt has happened in March or April, not May and June. I tried to be a fishing guide, but it's tough when they close the rivers in late July, in the middle of the season. In the comming years we are going to see more and more outdoor opportunites compromised by climate change.
These issues are important to ranchers, foresters, outfitters, and recreators. We can build common ground with this issue. That is now a possibility, where before it seemed unthinkable.
The new western Democrat: an outdoorsman who realizes the impact of global warming on livelyhoods and recreation, while maintaining our 2nd ammendment rights; a rancher who sees how drought will effect his cattle; the tree farmer who knows that climate change means slower growing trees more susceptible to disease and infestation.
While pundits debate whether the results are a long-term trend or a one-time fluke, the truth is that the West is turning blue because a new generation of voters are getting involved.
These voters—our generation—are repainting the West. And they’re painting it deep blue.
Montana: Young voters turned out in force, comprising 17 percent of the electorate—compared to just 13 percent nationwide—and broke for Senator-elect Jon Tester by 12 percent. In 2004, they made up more than one-fifth of the electorate and supported Brian Schweitzer by 11 percent.
Colorado: Colorado youth went for Kerry over Bush 51 to 47 percent in 2004. Young voters were also the best age group for Senator Ken Salazar, who first won election to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Exit polls are not available for 2006, but we can only guess that Governor-elect Bill Ritter and expanded Democratic majorities in the statehouse benefited from a growing youth vote.
Wyoming: Wyoming is blood red, but if young voters had their way, Democrat Gary Trauner would be representing the state in the U.S. Congress. Young voters went for Trauner by an astounding 16 percent.
Arizona: While losing the election by 15 percent, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson won young voters by 15 percent—outperforming his overall results by 30 points among young voters.
New Mexico: Governor Bill Richardson saw his strongest re-elect margins come from young voters.
Idaho: No exit polls in 2006, but all indications are that the state’s surprisingly strong Democratic showing in a governor’s race and U.S. House race—Idaho is even more Republican than Wyoming—came again from a groundswell of youth support.
They've also got a little advice for candidates looking to hold support from young Westerners. This isn't a fluke. It's a trend.
