Dennison's top ten legislative races...the first five...

by: Jay Stevens

Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 07:18:36 AM MST

House District 8 (central Kalispell): An open Democratic seat, this district always features a razor-close race, and this year has the added element of a third-party candidate. Bill Jones, a dentist and former Republican state legislator seen as a moderate, is running as an Independent, along with Democrat Bryan Schutt, a local architect, and Republican Steve Lavin, a Montana Highway Patrol officer.

LiTW has already spilled ink on this race. Schutt's our man. Donate. Volunteer. Contact.

HD20 (south Great Falls): Another open Democratic seat in a district that usually has close races. Republican Steve Fitzpatrick, an attorney, is squaring off against Democrat Donna Zook, an advocate for the mentally ill.

Again, another race mentioned here on LiTW. Donna Zook is our candidate, an early and steadfast opponent to the Highwood coal-fired plant.

Her Republican opponent, Steve Fitzpatrick, an attorney highly regarded by Gregg Smith at ECW, has wildly outraised Zook, cashing in on a whopping $25,965, according to the Great Falls Tribune, an obscene amount for a House race. What gives? Sadly he lacks a website, so we can't really check him out, but we can get a glimmer of an idea from the GFT profile of the HD20 race. In the questionnaire, this is how Fitzpatrick defines how he's different from Zook: "We need to bring new ideas and a new perspective to the Legislature. We can't continue to promote the same policies that have resulted in enormous debt and the highest level of joblessness since the Great Depression."

(A) The Montana state budget is not running a debt. (B) The policies that have led to high joblessness are free market policies: the deregulation of the financial industry. Are you telling me you're a progressive reformer, Fitzpatrick? I don't think so. What you have here is GOP electioneering bullsh*t, which challenges Gregg's characterization of the man as "honest."

Contact Zook, or donate.

HD36 (northeastern Montana corner): Rep. Julie French, D-Scobey, who knocked off a Republican incumbent four years ago in this rural district, now faces her own stiff challenge from Republican Austin Knudsen, a Culbertson attorney who grew up on a local farm and ranch.

This is what I wrote about French and HD36 before: "Scobey resident Julie French is our only incumbent in the battleground House races. Elected to the House first in 2006, she became the Democratic Majority whip in only her second term in office. She sits on the Human Services and Rules committees, and was vice chair of the Agriculture committee. In 2008, she was the primary sponsor of several bills, including an attempt to revise Montana's medical marijuana laws, which was killed by gross partisanship. Her opponent, Austin Knudsen, is a lawyer and big-business Republican running against health care reform."

Donate. Contact.

HD78 (East Helena): Two relatively well-known candidates are squaring off for this open seat, which Democrats have been winning by close margins in recent years. Democrat Joe Cohenour, a Highway Patrol trooper, is trying to succeed his wife, Jill, who can't run because of term limits. Republican Steve Gibson, a longtime administrator at the state Department of Corrections, lost a 2008 bid for the seat.

The Helena IR ran a good, in-depth profile of this race. Both candidates are well qualified for the seat, and Gibson's years of experience of public service tell me he recognizes the value of good government, and won't be voting to eliminate the HHS budget. Cohenour served on the Helena school board and supported the district's health and sex ed curriculum, and he's the pro-choice candidate in this race.

Really what it comes down to is if Gibson's really the moderate he paints himself to be. Can he resist the crushing pressure of the Republican caucus and vote against the interests of what has been a very radical bloc the last two sessions? Based on the experience of past Republican moderates - I'm guessing not. Cohenour, on the other hand, has a ringing endorsement from Montana Conservation Voters.  Admittedly he wasn't my first choice, but if we want to avoid letting the inmates run the asylum, he's your man. Donate. Contact.

Senate District 17 (Havre and portions of Hill, Blaine counties): House Speaker Bob Bergren, D-Havre, is trying to move up to the Senate by winning this open seat held by an outgoing Democrat. He faces a stiff challenge from Republican Rowlie Hutton, a well-known minister at a Christian Church in Havre.

This is what Yellowstone Kelly wrote about this race: "For the D's to have any shot at controlling the Senate, Bergren, the outgoing Speaker of the House of Representatives, must hold this seat. Hutton is the pastor of one of those large Sunday warehouse churches. If Bergren commits himself to the task at hand, this seat should stay blue. Advantage at outset:Slightly Bergren."

Bob Bergren is our man here. There's not much out there on Rowlie Hutton, but what there is hints that this guy is going to be a pretty fierce social conservative. Take this GFT profile of SD17. This is what Hutton has to say (amidst egregious use of scare quotes) on the back end of the report: "The role of government is to help people lead quiet and tranquil lives. Voters want someone who is not part of the back-slapping culture, but will instead fight for the people rather than governing against them. I believe in the sanctity of life and limited government. The recent controversy in Helena surrounding the forced sex education curriculum is a good example of government out of touch with the people. This is not the first time this issue has reared its ugly head. A proposal was made in the last two sessions to make this a statewide effort. I would oppose this - my opponent voted for it."

The Helena sex ed and health curriculum was done legally, in the open, and with the input of the community; it is not an "example of government out of touch with the people," it's government representing the interest of the community. H*ll, anti-health-curriculum crusader Kristi Allen-Gailushas dropped her lawsuit against the program because she received no support from the community. Oh, and the legislature has no power over the curricula decided on by local school boards. In short, this is pure, unmitigated lying bullsh*t intended only to rile the base.

Donate to or contact Bob Bergren for volunteer work.

I'll get to the second half of Dennison's article later...

Left in the West's 2010 Montana battleground House races

by: Jay Stevens

Thu Jul 22, 2010 at 08:31:38 AM MST

Last year, we had an ambitious number of candidates and races. We raised a lot of money -- over $6,000 -- but it was spread out over more than a dozen House and Senate candidates.

This year, I thought I'd try something different. Instead of identifying all swing races, I narrowed down the list to races from differing geographical areas that feature candidates that the LiTW readership can get excited about. If we can contribute the same amount of money we did last year, but to fewer candidates, we have a better chance of impacting those races.

Still, I'll be writing about as many races as I can this summer and pointing you to candidates' Act Blue pages. And, of course, any- and everyone is encouraged to create your own Act Blue pages and post diaries about races you'd like the readership to support.

Anyway, here are the five House candidates we're supporting this cycle:

HD 4: Will Hammerquist

Mike Jopek's leaving this Whitefish-area seat, and Will Hammerquist, of the National Parks Conservation Association and working to preserve the water quality of the North Fork of the Flathead River, is running on a platform of jobs creation. His opponent is Derek Skees. 'Nuf ced.

Web page - Facebook - volunteer

HD 20: Donna Zook

In Great Falls, Donna Zook is running for the House seat that Deb Kottel has vacated. Zook runs her own psychology and clinical psychology practice, and was an outspoken opponent to the Highwood coal-fired power plant. She's running on three main principles: public health, anti-discrimination, and conservation.

Web page - contact

HD 36: Julie French

Scobey resident Julie French is our only incumbent in the battleground House races. Elected to the House first in 2006, she became the Democratic Majority whip in only her second term in office. She sits on the Human Services and Rules committees, and was vice chair of the Agriculture committee. In 2008, she was the primary sponsor of several bills, including an attempt to revise Montana's medical marijuana laws, which was killed by gross partisanship. Her opponent, Austin Knudsen, is a lawyer and big-business Republican running against health care reform.

Contact

HD 77: Sheila Hogan

HD 77 stretches over much of Jefferson county, and includes a slice of Helena. Here, born-and-bred Butte-ian and miner's daughter, Sheila Hogan, is battling a "constitutional Republican" looking to hand over the keys of the state to multi-national extraction and energy corporations. Hogan is the executive director of the Career Training Institute, and a long-time advocate for jobs in the state, which makes her the ideal candidate in this economic slump marred by joblessness.

Website - Facebook -

HD 100: Willis Curdy

Had to get a Missoula candidate in the mix! This is Curdy's second shot at HD 100; in 2008, he jumped into the race at the last minute to replace an ailing Gary Brown. Rancher, smokejumper, teacher; running on job creation, public education, and access to health care: what's not to like? If that's not enough, consider that Curdy is a fave of curmudgeonly scribe-ster, Bill Vaughn. At the very least, you can expect some wry commentary on the race. That incumbent Republican Bill Nooney dropped out of the race because of financial troubles gives Curdy an edge in a race that would have been competitive anyway, but don't count out Champ Edmunds despite his sneer: Tea Party toxicity and GOP enthusiasm makes this race touch-and-go.

Website - Facebook - Contact

Just like last year, I created a page on Act Blue for all of the battleground House candidates. Take a look at the candidates, mull 'em over, donate if you want, but I'll be starting fundraising pushes pretty soon, as well as presenting a list of Senate battleground races.

If you're chomping at the bit, here's quick link to the donations page:

Primary wrap-up: Democratic legislative races...and all Sales final!

by: Jay Stevens

Wed Jun 09, 2010 at 06:28:56 AM MST

HD20: Right now 10 votes are the difference between Lee Ann Gills and Donna Zook, with Gills leading. Zook is the better choice, even if labor doesn't like her opposition to the Great Falls coal plant. That just means she loves her country more. We'll have to wait for the official tally on this one.

HD 25: Lindsay Love trumps Rod Lukasik by a wide margin, 57.7 - 41.3 percent. Great news. Lukasik, a pro-coal, anti-choice labor candidate drummed out. Yellowstone Kelly wonders if labor will back Love's Republican opponent. Uh...labor people? The Montana GOP had a "right to work" plank in their party platform in 2008, and I have no doubt Love will support most of labor's issues.

HD65: Kathleen Williams wins handily over Bethany Letiecq, 60.6 - 39. Another race where both candidates are solid choices. A bit of a surprise that the tally was so lopsided.

HD78: Joe Cohenour beats Molly Severtson, 57-42.7. Maybe not so great news for Democratic chances in November, in one of the state's key swing districts. But maybe Cohenour has learned how to campaign.

HD86: Kathy Swanson wins, 57.2 to 42.5 percent. "Granite county's favorite son," Yellowstone Kelly described Jim Jenner, "who was appointed to replace Dan Villa."

HD94: Hill looks like she's going to edge Crowley, 53.4 - 46.4, which comes to about 94 votes. I like the results.

SD8: Shannon Augare looks to have won this one over Joey Jayne, 56.7 to 43.2 percent. (And kudos to the Wunderkind Rasmus for calling it when Augare was down by 11 points.) A great win, as Augare's an up-and-coming progressive leader, and Jayne is not.

SD40: Mary Caferro cruises to victory, 60.5 to 39.3 percent. Gallick spent over 15 grand of his own money on this race.

SD43: Just under 100 votes separate Wayne Ternes from Gene Vuckovich. Right now, Vuckovich has the lead. Vuckovich seems to have more and varied experiences and promises to be more capable, but perhaps a less dependable vote. Correct me if I'm wrong...

SD48: Tom Facey 62.6 percent, Teresa Henry 37.2 percent. A win/win for Missoula (or lose/lose if your glass is half empty), Facey runs away with this race. The word on Facey is that "he gets things done," which, if these results hold true, seems to be on display today.

Oh, and Scott Sales? He loses to Joe Skinner, 53.5 - 46.5 percent. That's about 750 votes. Looks like there won't be any pesky official duties hindering Sales' vacation plans anytime soon.

Primary predictions, and more!

by: Yellowstone Kelly

Fri Jun 04, 2010 at 08:26:26 AM MST

Time for a few predictions in higher-profile, more closely-contested D primary races.

HOUSE

House District # 20.Great Falls. Lee Ann Gills over Donna Zook.
House District #25. Great Falls. Rod Lukasik over Lindsay Love.
House District #65. Bozeman. Bethany Letiecq over Kathleen Williams.
House District #78. East Helena. Molly Severtson over Joe Cohenour.
House District #86. Anaconda. Kathy Swanson over Jim Jenner.
House District #94. Missoula. Ellie Hill over Lou Ann Crowley.

If Zook should win the nomination, word has it that organized labor is prepared to throw its weight behind the R nominee, most likely Jack Allen, because of Zook's longstanding and outspoken opposition to the ill-fated coal-fired generation plant. Similarly, organized labor is said not to be terribly excited about Love. Could it switch its allegiances to the R nominee here as well? Watch the outcome of these two primaries and then watch what happens in the general election campaign. Could be classic cases of greens/progressives v. labor (read: infighting) to the benefit of the R candidate.

Letiecq-Williams. Close race with two progressive women squaring off.

Severtson-Cohenour (Joe). If Joe happens to win the primary, the D's will write this seat off.

Swanson and the Deer Lodge County bunch swamp Jenner, Granite County's favorite son who was appointed to replace Dan Villa.

Hill-Crowley. The Who's Who of Missoula is weighing in on both sides. Again, two progressive women contenders.

SENATE

Senate District # 8. Glacier and southern Lake counties. Shannon Augare over Joey Jayne.
Senate District # 40. Helena. Mary Caffero over Dave Gallik.
Senate District #43. Anaconda. Gene Vuckovich over Wayne Ternes.
Senate District # 48. Missoula. Tom Facey over Teresa Henry.

In each of these races, the D nominee will be heavily favored to mop up in November.

Augare-Jayne. Clear choice: Up-and-coming star v. termed-out House member with a very regressive view of the world (and a four-session voting record to back it up). The Blackfeet Nation prevails once again.

Caferro-Gallik. Caferro has been playing catch-up since Day One. Her relentless work on the doors will pay off. Senate D caucus will be complemented regardless.

Facey-Henry. Facey's grit and determination and long-time hard work on the doors give him a slight advantage. Win for progressives no matter the outcome.

...and the Montana House races...

by: Yellowstone Kelly

Wed Mar 24, 2010 at 05:52:10 AM MST

For another, Robin Hamilton, former occupant of HD 92's seat, is a Democrat, not a Republican. The post also appeared to state that Bryce Bennett was a Republican, when, in fact, he is a Democrat. But the post was factual when it said he has a "D opponent," which is true. Bennett does have a Democratic opponent for the June primary.  -- JS]

The House of Representatives

The D's have the best chance since 1990 to win a majority of the 100 seats up for grabs in 2010.

Twenty years.

Came close in 2004 and 2008, when the best it could do was fifty seats.

Depending on how President Obama ("Change you can believe in") and the D's ("Just gimme a chance") do nationally on health care, financial institution reform, energy and climate change, this time could be different for D candidates.

Watch ten races:

HD 3. Columbia Falls and Hungry Horse. Dee Brown (R - termed). Contested R primary, Zac Perry (D) an  Independent and a Libertarian. D's won this seat in 2006 and, with such an array of candidates in the field, this one has to be on the radar as a possible pick up. Zac is one of a number of young D's, which bodes well for the party long term. He will need help. Advantage at outset: R.

HD 8. Kalispell. Cheryl Steenson (D - not running). Three R's in the primary and Bryan Schutt (D) and Bill Jones (I). This seat has gone back and forth between the D's and GOP since the late 1980's. As an open seat, the R's count on this seat as a pick up. Watch Bill Jones, a former R House Rep who hates the R's. If he choose to wage a positive campaign, he may draw off votes and help Schutt. Advantage at outset: R.

HD 12. Lake County. John Fleming (D - incumbent) and a contested R primary. This is Rick Jore country. Fleming ran a textbook campaign in 2008 against a weak opponent, but the R's have targeted this seat and will devote substantial resources to win it. If Dan Salomon wins the R primary, watch out. Advantage at outset: R.

HD 20. Great Falls. Deb Kottel (R - termed). Contested R and D primaries. While a coal plant has been shelved in favor a natural gas fired electrical generator, the scars remain and activists on both sides remember who was on which side. If the D's can't close ranks behind its nominee, the R's win this seat. Advantage at outset: D.

HD 24. Great Falls. Brian Hoven (R - incumbent) and Gary Lucero (D). D's lost this seat for the first time in recent memory in 2008 and want it back. Hoven is a lackluster GOP minion. Lucero is a longtime teacher-coach . Barnburner. Advantage at outset: D.

HD 38. Glendive and Dawson County. Dennis Getz (D) and a three-way R primary, including Ed Hilbert, who was elected in 2006, then sat out the 2008 election. Getz has a very conservative voting record. But, it may not be enough. If Hilbert prevails in the primary, R win the seat. Advantage at outset: R.

HD 78. East Helena. Jill Cohenour (D - termed). Contested R and D primaries. If Steve Gibson wins the R nomination and Joe Cohenour, Jill's spouse, win the D nomination, chalk up one for the R's. Joe ran a lackluster Senate race in 2006 and lost and most recently lost a local school board race, hardly a positive sign. Advantage at outset: R.

HD 92. Missoula. Robin Hamilton (D [Hamilton is, of course, a Democrat - JS] - not running). Contested R and D primaries and a Libertarian candidate. Bryce Bennett (D) is said to have an advantage over his D primary opponent. Normally a solid D district, R's are keen on this as a district it can win. Advantage at outset: Even.

HD 90. [Corrected from "HD 94." -- JS] Northern Ravalli County. Ray Hawk (R - termed). Edward Greef (R) and Wayne Stanford (D) and a Libertarian candidate. Who says term limits are all bad? Hawk's fossilized remains are done. Stanford served in the House back in the early 1990's. As a retired teacher (nearly 40 years), he likely taught many of the voters in the district. Still, this is R country. No D has served since the mid-1990's. Advantage starting out: R.

HD 100. Missoula. Bill Nooney (Foreclosure - Missoula). Champ Edmunds (R) and Willis Curdy (D). Nooney is sitting this one out. Evidently, the man who touted himself as capable business man, has more liabilities than assets. Curdy gave Nooney all he could handle in 2008 and, with this being an open seat, is given a very good opportunity to win. But, this is a tough district for D's. Advantage at outset: Even.

Not much room for error.

Many of the D's running in 2010 do not have the best progressive credentials or voting records. If you are alarmed by the prospect of some un-progressive D's being elected consider the alternative: A GOP majority with Tom McGillvray as Speaker of the House and Crayton Kerns as majority leader.

These two and their fellow-travelers not only voted wrong. They carried awful legislation. They epitomize the tea bag mentality. Rep. Kerns recently remarked at a dinner in eastern Montana that he does not believe in reaching across the aisle and working together. Instead, he said, he believes in reaching his hand out to slap some sense into those on the other side.

This year it looks like the R fortunes will change and Congress may turn red. Can you help make certain Montana avoids the same fate?