Did the young vanish? Or were forgotten?

by: Jay Stevens

Sun Jan 24, 2010 at 17:42:34 PM MST

I do get sick of the way everything revolves around boomer narratives. We all joke about hippie-punching, but when Joe Klein goes off on the "far left" (or whatever he calls us now), that is what he thinks he's doing. And the electorate is polarized along age lines as never before (since the advent of demographically detailed exit polls), though the greatest divide is between those over 65 (who are too old to be boomers) and those under 30, not between Leno's generation and Conan's.

Wulfgar! mentions that a Boomer's been harassing him about how his generation could organize and "get things done," apparently contrasting that to how kiddies organize these days. I'll get to that canard in a moment, but first I want to touch on something similar I heard recently from a respected source, that young voters abandoned Obama "just like they did McGovern," and that his campaign was therefore essentially illusory.

Or, as Hunter S. Thompson said about the youth vote in 2004, "yeah, we rocked the vote all right. Those little bastards betrayed us again."

But here's the thing. McGovern, despite all the organizing around young voters, barely topped Nixon among 18 to 29 year olds, as Nixon carried 48 percent of that age group. Compare that to 2008 voting statistics: 18 to 29 year olds went sixty-six percent for Obama. And turnout for the young in 2008 was fractions of a percentage point from matching that generation's record-setting turnout rate in 1972, the first year that 18 to 20 year olds had the right to vote.

Young voters are still supportive of Democrats. According to a forwarded email from CIRCLE, young voters went for Coakley in the Massachusetts special election at a 58 - 40 rate...but only with a 19 percent turnout rate. But then Coakley didn't bother with any GOTV aimed at her biggest supporters.

The way I see it, is that Obama did a much better job organizing and appealing to the young than the McGovern campaign. I think Coakley's campaign illustrates that you still have to earn their votes every election. The lesson? Winning the youth vote - and elections - means pursuing good, progressive issues that impact the young, and rolling up your sleeves to get them to the polls.

Young voters are hardly the vanishing and illusory voting bloc that many long-time politicos believe...it's just that, for many establishment politicos, the work, creativity, and risk-taking policy agendas needed to woo them aren't worth the effort.

Rethinking "Rethink 08"

by: Jay Stevens

Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 12:05:56 PM MST

Again, the genesis of the project from the Indy report:

During a visit to the University of Montana Oct. 8, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina spoke briefly about the political fire ignited among America's youth by President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign. Their passion, sparked by the unconventional tools of the digital age, helped sweep Obama into office.

But Messina's comments painted a discouraging picture for the future of that movement. He said voters ages 18 to 29 continue to rally around the issue of climate change, but the enthusiasm generated by the Obama camp has cooled over the last nine months....

In the wake of Messina's visit, Bloomsburg and seven other UM journalism students grew increasingly puzzled about the change of heart during the first months of Obama's presidency. They began asking young voters in Missoula a compelling question: If you could recast your 2008 presidential vote, would you?

Rethink 08 seems to be based on certain assumptions. First, that young voters are disproportionately unenthusiastic about the president - falling into the old meme that the young are unreliable - and that this un-enthusiasm would manifest itself into a turn to the right, that voters might have opted for the other guy if they had the information in 2008 they possess now.

Stumbling toward the future

by: Jay Stevens

Fri Dec 04, 2009 at 11:56:28 AM MST

A look at key Democratic constituencies shows how demoralized the party's base currently is. Among African-Americans, just 34 percent are likely to vote, versus 54 percent unlikely to do so. Republican-leaning white voters clocked in at 66-29. Only 41 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds, a key constituency for Democrats in both 2006 and 2008, are likely to vote, compared to 49 percent likely to sit things out.

If these numbers hold for the next year, it won't matter what those generic congressional ballot questions say, nor will it matter whether Democrats can increase their performance with independent voters. If base Democratic voters don't turn out, like what happened in New Jersey and Virginia this year, Democrats will suffer at the ballot box.

Moulitsas attributes the drop in the base's enthusiasm to the moribund policies of Democrats, the endless wrangling in Congress over a less-than-stellar healthcare reform bill, the Afghan escalation, etc & co.  I think he's right on - up to a point. Let's face it: the majority of voters have only a passing familiarity, say, with the details of healthcare reform, and it's likely most support the president's decision about increasing troop levels in Afghanistan. Nor is the administration's foot-dragging on DOMA or DADT probably even familiar to most of the electorate. In short, I don't think it's policy alone that's dampened Democratic voters.

To understand the current mood of Democrat-voting citizens, I think you have to go back to Obama's campaign and its rhetoric. It was bold, and hopeful. A campaign for change! And while the hope and change were worded in vague terms to allow voters to project their own values onto the campaign, the overriding sense was that Obama's election would usher in a new post-partisan government, with mature, reasonable men and women working soberly to solve the country's most pressing problems: climate change, Iraq, the economy. We were - are - in a time of crisis, and Obama's election was meant to be a signal for maturity and action.

Obviously that hasn't happened.

I don't think voters necessarily blame the president. He still has high approval ratings, given the low scores voters give to, say, the direction the country's moving in, or the attitude towards healthcare reform. Instead, I think many Obama supporters look at DC, hear the rabid Beck-ian insanity on the lips of Republicans, see the gridlock in Congress and the paucity of legislation, and grow discouraged. We worked our *sses off to elect Obama and usher in a new era of politics - and nothing happened. Nothing's happening.

Not that Obama has helped much. It's easy to forget after the bold proclamations of the campaign season and the magnificence of the campaign itself in the way it was organized and run that Obama is essentially a legislator. Instead of a bold push for a legislative slate from the White House, we see the president hand over critical reform to Congress, letting Congressional committees draft tepid, overly compromised bills. Where's the Green New Deal? What happened to single-payer healthcare?

Now, I'm not saying this wasn't the best way to get something done, that it isn't realistic or pragmatic. But it's also discouraging, ineffective reform. The president - and a lot of Democrats - seem completely unaware they can drive the media narrative, not just react to it with paranoia and skittish, scuttling side-steps to the right. The Bush administration got it. They were an inept, amoral, egoistical bunch whose policies were national disasters, but they understood how to control the narrative and push through an ambitious agenda. Why can't the president do that - but with good policies and ideas? Answer: he's a legislator, as is his CoS, Emmanuel. They think in terms of intra-legislative compromises and negotiations, of committeework and votes.

But we want to be inspired. We want to work for tangible and beautiful goals.

Are young people unenthusiastic about politics?

by: Jay Stevens

Thu Dec 03, 2009 at 18:58:23 PM MST

During a visit to the University of Montana Oct. 8, White House Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina spoke briefly about the political fire ignited among America's youth by President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign. Their passion, sparked by the unconventional tools of the digital age, helped sweep Obama into office.

But Messina's comments painted a discouraging picture for the future of that movement. He said voters ages 18 to 29 continue to rally around the issue of climate change, but the enthusiasm generated by the Obama camp has cooled over the last nine months.

The question of why (or if) enthusiasm for Obama among young people has declined intrigued some members of UM's journalism program, enough for them to start a seminar that "seeks to answer why youth enthusiasm is dwindling."

Counterpoint from Forward Montana's Chief of Stuff, John Bacino:

In general, the most common complaint heard so far is the pace by which change has occurred under the Obama administration, said Bloomsburg. Most had hoped for more immediate results.

"We need to keep in mind, even after so much effort by so many people, (government) still moves slowly," Bacino said.

While Bacino supports questioning the effectiveness of elected leaders, he thinks Rethink'08 may be asking these questions prematurely. It's only been a year, he said. And sure, some polls show a decline in Obama's approval ratings among young voters. But the highest declines are among other age groups, he said.

Asking what happened to the enthusiasm for the 2008 presidential election is like asking "what happened to the enthusiasm associated with last year's World Series," Bacino said.

IMHO, while Obama has made some very questionable moves - defending DOMA in Bush-ian language, compromising on Gitmo detainees, using Bush Doctrine language to support the Afghan troop escalation - blame for stalled or sputtering reform lies with Congress. From the Indy report:

"She's still very active in politics and still definitely approves of Obama," Bloomsburg says of [young voter Chavvahn]Gade, who interned in Obama's Senate office during the election. "Where she was disappointed really was in the Democratic Party itself, particularly [Sen. Max] Baucus. She feels like she worked so hard to get Obama into office and was very excited for it. Now that the Democrats control everything, she feels they should be getting more done."

So...has enthusiasm for politics among the young waned? Or is it enthusiasm for Obama that's waned? Or Democrats? Or will the young be back at election time?

According to the Rethink 08 website, there'll be on online discussion about these questions between Missoula city councilman Jason Wiener, U of M poly sci professor Jeffrey Greene, and poly sci grad, Ctibor Jappel tomorrow at 2pm...

But why wait? Let's kick off the discussion now...

Montana teeny bopper wins bid for New Hampshire county treasurer job

by: Jay Stevens

Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 12:24:50 PM MST

A county treasurer who lost her bid for a fourth term last week to a 20-year-old Dartmouth College student from Montana blames her failed candidacy on "brainwashed college kids."

Republican Carol Elliott said students just voted for the Democratic ticket, which included Dartmouth junior Vanessa Sievers. Sievers won by nearly 600 votes out of 42,000 cast after targeting voters at Dartmouth and Plymouth State University through a $42 ad on the Web site Facebook.

"It was the brainwashed college kids that made the difference," Elliott, 66, told the Valley News of Lebanon. She said she had little faith that Sievers will fulfill her duties adequately.

"You've got a teenybopper for a treasurer," said Elliott, who has held the position for six years. "I'm concerned for the citizens of Grafton County."

If you pay attention to conservatives for any length of time, you'll hear a fundamental disrespect of the judgment of the electorate they serve. You know what I'm talking about, calls for tests for potential voters, stricter registration procedures, etc & co. That's why voter fraud gets traction on the right: it taps into a dislike of what they perceive to be non-normative peoples. In short,like people not on Saxby Chambliss' "side."

Only problem is that there's a lot of us "non-normative" people out there. And we like to be included in the goings on of our society. And who knows? Maybe some of us just simply will be better at the job.

Sievers, by the way, is from Big Sky, Montana.

Youth Paint the West Blue

by: Matt Singer

Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 12:02:59 PM MST

1. Rural voters
2. Indian country
3. Butte/Anaconda
4. Young voters

While pundits debate whether the results are a long-term trend or a one-time fluke, the truth is that the West is turning blue because a new generation of voters are getting involved.

These voters—our generation—are repainting the West. And they’re painting it deep blue.

Montana: Young voters turned out in force, comprising 17 percent of the electorate—compared to just 13 percent nationwide—and broke for Senator-elect Jon Tester by 12 percent. In 2004, they made up more than one-fifth of the electorate and supported Brian Schweitzer by 11 percent.

Colorado: Colorado youth went for Kerry over Bush 51 to 47 percent in 2004. Young voters were also the best age group for Senator Ken Salazar, who first won election to the U.S. Senate in 2004. Exit polls are not available for 2006, but we can only guess that Governor-elect Bill Ritter and expanded Democratic majorities in the statehouse benefited from a growing youth vote.

Wyoming: Wyoming is blood red, but if young voters had their way, Democrat Gary Trauner would be representing the state in the U.S. Congress. Young voters went for Trauner by an astounding 16 percent.

Arizona: While losing the election by 15 percent, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson won young voters by 15 percent—outperforming his overall results by 30 points among young voters.

New Mexico: Governor Bill Richardson saw his strongest re-elect margins come from young voters.

Idaho: No exit polls in 2006, but all indications are that the state’s surprisingly strong Democratic showing in a governor’s race and U.S. House race—Idaho is even more Republican than Wyoming—came again from a groundswell of youth support.